Giga Chikadze
"Ninja"
15-5-0
VS
2026-09-19
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Featherweight
Joanderson Brito
"Tubarao"
17-5-1
XGBOOST PREDICTION
Joanderson Brito 'Tubarao'
59.3% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
55%
Decision
27%
KO / TKO
18%
Submission
Decision54.8%
KO / TKO26.7%
Submission18.5%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 147.2%
Round 235.2%
Round 3+17.6%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 45% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Giga Chikadze
Joanderson Brito
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup +6.46
14%
Age
Giga Chikadze 38.1 yrs
10%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Joanderson Brito -1.01
10%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Giga Chikadze -1.09
8%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.04
5%
Fights per year
Giga Chikadze 1.93
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Joanderson Brito 3.14
4%
Round 1 strike output
Joanderson Brito 10.00
4%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -3
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Giga Chikadze 1.55
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Giga Chikadze 3.32
3%
Striking defense
Joanderson Brito 48%
2%
Avg control time
Joanderson Brito 102.68
2%
Strikes absorbed/min
Joanderson Brito 2.22
2%
← pushes toward Giga Chikadze pushes toward Joanderson Brito →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Giga Chikadze

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
15.3m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
L DEC
L DEC
W DEC
L DEC
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 145 lbs
Reach: 188 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Joanderson Brito

Win Streak
2
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
11.6m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
W DEC
L DEC
L DEC
W KO
Height: 173 cm
Weight: 145 lbs
Reach: 183 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Giga Chikadze
ADVANTAGE
Joanderson Brito
Striking Accuracy
43.3%
+4.2%
47.5%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.17
+1.07
2.10
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.32
+1.10
2.22
Striking Defense
56.2%
+7.9%
48.3%
Takedown Accuracy
37.5%
+15.8%
53.2%
Takedown Defense
61.1%
+0.0%
61.1%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.25
+0.13
0.12
Avg Control Time (sec)
71.58
+31.10
102.68
Strikes Per Round
16.14
+3.84
12.30
Head Strike %
58.5%
+1.0%
57.5%
Body Strike %
24.9%
+5.2%
19.7%
Leg Strike %
16.6%
+6.2%
22.8%
Last 5 Win Rate
20.0%
+40.0%
60.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
0.0%
+20.0%
20.0%