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Rodolfo Bellato
"Trator"
12-3-1
VS
2026-09-26
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
Light Heavyweight
Christian Edwards
"Pain"
8-5-0
Thin UFC data
NO AGE · LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Rodolfo Bellato 'Trator'
55.5% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
55.8% 44.2%
Rodolfo Bellato
LightGBM
57.2% 42.8%
Rodolfo Bellato
Logistic (Core)
51.2% 48.8%
Rodolfo Bellato
CatBoost
58.3% 41.7%
Rodolfo Bellato
Ensemble
55.1% 44.9%
Rodolfo Bellato
market-margin__xgb-full
55.3% 44.7%
Rodolfo Bellato
No Age · CatBoost
58.2% 41.8%
Rodolfo Bellato
No Age · Ensemble
56.3% 43.7%
Rodolfo Bellato
No Age · LightGBM currently viewing
55.5% 44.5%
Rodolfo Bellato
No Age · Logistic (Core)
54.8% 45.2%
Rodolfo Bellato
No Age · XGBoost
56.6% 43.4%
Rodolfo Bellato
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
60.4% 39.6%
Rodolfo Bellato
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
57.5% 42.5%
Rodolfo Bellato
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
59.9% 40.1%
Rodolfo Bellato
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
51.6% 48.4%
Rodolfo Bellato
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
54.8% 45.2%
Rodolfo Bellato
With Odds · CatBoost
59.1% 40.9%
Rodolfo Bellato
With Odds · Ensemble
53.5% 46.5%
Rodolfo Bellato
With Odds · LightGBM
56.6% 43.4%
Rodolfo Bellato
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
51.2% 48.8%
Rodolfo Bellato
With Odds · XGBoost
52.8% 47.2%
Rodolfo Bellato
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
44%
Decision
42%
KO / TKO
14%
Submission
Decision44.3%
KO / TKO42.0%
Submission13.7%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 156.1%
Round 226.8%
Round 3+17.1%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 56% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Rodolfo Bellato
Christian Edwards
Elo rating edge
Matchup 44
13%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Rodolfo Bellato -1.58
9%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.03
7%
Net striking dominance
Matchup -0.12
7%
Avg takedowns attempted
Rodolfo Bellato 2.45
6%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup 19%
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Christian Edwards -0.57
5%
Strikes absorbed/min
Rodolfo Bellato 4.73
4%
Last 2 avg fight time
Christian Edwards 900
3%
Fights per year
Christian Edwards 0
3%
Fights per year
Rodolfo Bellato 2.21
3%
Head absorption rate
Rodolfo Bellato 67%
3%
Sub attempts/fight
Rodolfo Bellato 0.18
3%
Elo rating
Christian Edwards 1,485
3%
← pushes toward Rodolfo Bellato pushes toward Christian Edwards →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Rodolfo Bellato

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
9.4m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
L DEC
L DEC
D DEC
W KO
Height: 190 cm
Weight: 205 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Christian Edwards

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
15.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
Height: 196 cm
Weight: 205 lbs
Reach: 198 cm
Stance: Southpaw
Head-to-Head Stats
Rodolfo Bellato
ADVANTAGE
Christian Edwards
Striking Accuracy
53.3%
+6.7%
46.5%
Strikes Landed/Min
4.14
+1.42
2.71
Strikes Absorbed/Min
4.73
+2.02
2.71
Striking Defense
50.0%
+5.1%
55.1%
Takedown Accuracy
38.4%
+9.4%
29.0%
Takedown Defense
74.4%
+11.9%
62.5%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.26
+0.06
0.19
Avg Control Time (sec)
66.74
+14.70
81.45
Strikes Per Round
18.64
+4.43
14.22
Head Strike %
60.6%
+2.3%
58.3%
Body Strike %
20.9%
+4.4%
25.3%
Leg Strike %
18.4%
+2.1%
16.4%
Last 5 Win Rate
40.0%
+40.0%
0.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
40.0%
+40.0%
0.0%