Kayla Harrison
19-1-0
VS
Amanda Nunes
"The Lioness"
23-5-0
Market vs Model
Kayla Harrison
Amanda Nunes
Opening line
-210
+177
Market says
65%
35%
Main + Market says
69%
31%
Gap vs market
+3
-3
Market Margin says
72%
28%
Edge at that price
+4
-8
No side clears the 5-point value threshold at the opening line.
The gap uses whichever model you've selected. Value always comes from Market Margin, the one model whose
disagreements with the betting line were backtested (flagged sides returned about +8% for favorites and +18% for
underdogs on flat bets at the opening price across ~2,800 past fights). Other models' disagreements with the market
haven't held up, so they don't get a value flag. It's measured against the opening line — if the price has
moved, the edge will be different.
Fight Insights
40%
Kayla Harrison
Fighters who are 35 or older have won 40% of their UFC fights (961-1432)
Kayla Harrison: age 36
58%
Kayla Harrison
Fighters who absorb under 2.2 significant strikes per minute have won 58% of their UFC fights (1262-912)
Kayla Harrison: absorbs 1.1/min
62%
Kayla Harrison
Fighters who have won 85%+ of 12+ pro fights facing an opponent who has been finished 2+ times in the UFC have won 62% of their UFC fights (471-286)
Kayla Harrison: 19-1-0 record | Amanda Nunes: finished 2 times
57%
Amanda Nunes
Fighters who average 3.8+ minutes of control time per fight have won 57% of their UFC fights (1170-886)
Amanda Nunes: 3.9 min control/fight
61%
Amanda Nunes
Fighters who are coming off a win facing an opponent who is returning from a layoff of a year or more have won 61% of their UFC fights (387-252)
Kayla Harrison: 17 months since last fight
30%
Market check · Amanda Nunes
Underdogs who are 35 or older have won 30% of their fights — 5 points below the 35% the opening lines implied (n=1451)
Amanda Nunes: opening line implies a 35% chance to win
71%
Market check · Kayla Harrison
Favorites who land 32%+ of their strikes on the ground have won 71% of their fights — 6 points above the 65% the opening lines implied (n=826)
Kayla Harrison: opening line implies a 65% chance to win
63%
Matchup
Fights where both fighters average 3.8+ minutes of control time per fight go the distance 63% of the time (vs 48% of all UFC fights, n=219)
60%
Division & format
Women's Bantamweight fights go the distance 60% of the time (vs 48% of all UFC fights, n=252)
22%
Division & format
Women's Bantamweight fights end in a KO/TKO 22% of the time (vs 33% of all UFC fights, n=252)
19%
Division & format
Title fights end in round 1 19% of the time (vs 27% of all UFC fights, n=400)
Real UFC history since 2006, using each fighter's record, form and stats as they stood
before every past fight. Only patterns that hold up statistically (corrected for
testing many ideas at once) and point the same way in both halves of history are shown —
these describe the past, they are not predictions.
What Every Model Says
Main + Market
currently viewing
68.6%
31.4%
Kayla Harrison
XGBoost
62.3%
37.7%
Kayla Harrison
LightGBM
56.8%
43.2%
Kayla Harrison
Logistic (Core)
44.5%
55.5%
Amanda Nunes
CatBoost
57.0%
43.0%
Kayla Harrison
Ensemble
53.3%
46.7%
Kayla Harrison
Market Margin · XGBoost
71.5%
28.5%
Kayla Harrison
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
59.7%
40.3%
Kayla Harrison
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
57.0%
43.0%
Kayla Harrison
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
57.2%
42.8%
Kayla Harrison
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
43.6%
56.4%
Amanda Nunes
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
61.8%
38.2%
Kayla Harrison
With Odds · CatBoost
68.9%
31.1%
Kayla Harrison
With Odds · Ensemble
64.9%
35.1%
Kayla Harrison
With Odds · LightGBM
63.2%
36.8%
Kayla Harrison
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
44.5%
55.5%
Amanda Nunes
With Odds · XGBoost
66.7%
33.3%
Kayla Harrison
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
46%
Decision
22%
KO / TKO
31%
Submission
How long it lasts 5-round fight
63%
Goes the distance
fair -171
37%
Ends in a finish
fair +171
| Rounds line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 94% -1513 | 6% +1513 |
| 1.5 | 79% -385 | 21% +385 |
| 2.5 | 63% -171 | 37% +171 |
| 3.5 | 63% -171 | 37% +171 |
| 4.5 | 63% -171 | 37% +171 |
When it ends
"Over 1.5" means the fight lasts past the middle of round 2, the way sportsbooks settle it. Fair odds
are the break-even price with no vig, so compare them with a book's line.
On unseen fights this model beat the plain base rate by about 10%
(log loss; 46% of 5-round fights go the distance),
so treat it as a tilt away from the base rate, not a certainty.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Kayla Harrison
Amanda Nunes
13%
13%
7%
7%
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
← pushes toward Kayla Harrison
pushes toward Amanda Nunes →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Kayla Harrison
Win Streak
3
Finish Rate
67%
Avg Duration
10.6m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
SUB
W
DEC
W
SUB
Height:
173 cm
Weight:
135 lbs
Reach:
168 cm
Stance:
Southpaw
Amanda Nunes
Win Streak
2
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
17.1m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
W
DEC
L
SUB
W
SUB
W
DEC
Height:
173 cm
Weight:
135 lbs
Reach:
175 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Kayla Harrison
ADVANTAGE
Amanda Nunes
Striking Accuracy
Strikes Landed/Min
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Striking Defense
Takedown Accuracy
Takedown Defense
Knockdowns/Fight
Avg Control Time (sec)
Strikes Per Round
Head Strike %
Body Strike %
Leg Strike %
Last 5 Win Rate
Last 5 Finish Rate