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Kayla Harrison
19-1-0
VS
2026-11-14
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
Women's Bantamweight
Amanda Nunes
"The Lioness"
23-5-0
WITH ODDS · XGBOOST PREDICTION
Kayla Harrison
64.9% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
57.3% 42.7%
Kayla Harrison
LightGBM
53.6% 46.4%
Kayla Harrison
Logistic (Core)
44.5% 55.5%
Amanda Nunes
CatBoost
57.0% 43.0%
Kayla Harrison
Ensemble
55.0% 45.0%
Kayla Harrison
market-margin__xgb-full
73.2% 26.8%
Kayla Harrison
No Age · CatBoost
58.6% 41.4%
Kayla Harrison
No Age · Ensemble
53.1% 46.9%
Kayla Harrison
No Age · LightGBM
55.5% 44.5%
Kayla Harrison
No Age · Logistic (Core)
46.9% 53.1%
Amanda Nunes
No Age · XGBoost
61.0% 39.0%
Kayla Harrison
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
59.0% 41.0%
Kayla Harrison
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
53.7% 46.3%
Kayla Harrison
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
58.4% 41.6%
Kayla Harrison
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
43.7% 56.3%
Amanda Nunes
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
61.4% 38.6%
Kayla Harrison
With Odds · CatBoost
67.5% 32.5%
Kayla Harrison
With Odds · Ensemble
64.8% 35.2%
Kayla Harrison
With Odds · LightGBM
66.5% 33.5%
Kayla Harrison
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
44.5% 55.5%
Amanda Nunes
With Odds · XGBoost currently viewing
64.9% 35.1%
Kayla Harrison
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
54%
Decision
19%
KO / TKO
27%
Submission
Decision53.9%
KO / TKO19.3%
Submission26.8%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 133.5%
Round 229.0%
Round 3+37.4%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 46% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Kayla Harrison
Amanda Nunes
Market latest prob diff
Matchup
24%
Age
Kayla Harrison 36.4 yrs
6%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -8
6%
Elo momentum edge
Matchup 71
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Amanda Nunes +0.65
5%
Market opening prob diff
Matchup
5%
Age
Amanda Nunes 38.5 yrs
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Amanda Nunes 3.76
4%
Striking defense
Kayla Harrison 58%
3%
Distance strike defense
Kayla Harrison 63%
3%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Amanda Nunes 0.44
3%
Avg control time
Kayla Harrison 104.97
3%
Last 2 avg fight time
Kayla Harrison 747.50
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Kayla Harrison 2.09
2%
← pushes toward Kayla Harrison pushes toward Amanda Nunes →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Kayla Harrison

Win Streak
3
Finish Rate
67%
Avg Duration
10.6m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
W DEC
W SUB
Height: 173 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 168 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Amanda Nunes

Win Streak
2
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
17.1m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W DEC
L SUB
W SUB
W DEC
Height: 173 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 175 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Kayla Harrison
ADVANTAGE
Amanda Nunes
Striking Accuracy
51.6%
+2.2%
49.4%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.56
+0.45
4.00
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.09
+0.61
2.69
Striking Defense
58.0%
+0.1%
57.9%
Takedown Accuracy
38.0%
+8.5%
46.5%
Takedown Defense
65.4%
+0.0%
65.4%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.10
+0.21
0.31
Avg Control Time (sec)
104.97
+10.85
94.12
Strikes Per Round
17.26
+1.43
18.69
Head Strike %
64.9%
+1.3%
66.2%
Body Strike %
20.8%
+2.8%
18.0%
Leg Strike %
14.2%
+1.6%
15.8%
Last 5 Win Rate
100.0%
+20.0%
80.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
66.7%
+46.7%
20.0%