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Kayla Harrison
19-1-0
VS
2026-11-14
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
Women's Bantamweight
Amanda Nunes
"The Lioness"
23-5-0
RECENCY-HEAVY · LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Kayla Harrison
58.4% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
57.3% 42.7%
Kayla Harrison
LightGBM
53.6% 46.4%
Kayla Harrison
Logistic (Core)
44.5% 55.5%
Amanda Nunes
CatBoost
57.0% 43.0%
Kayla Harrison
Ensemble
55.0% 45.0%
Kayla Harrison
market-margin__xgb-full
73.2% 26.8%
Kayla Harrison
No Age · CatBoost
58.6% 41.4%
Kayla Harrison
No Age · Ensemble
53.1% 46.9%
Kayla Harrison
No Age · LightGBM
55.5% 44.5%
Kayla Harrison
No Age · Logistic (Core)
46.9% 53.1%
Amanda Nunes
No Age · XGBoost
61.0% 39.0%
Kayla Harrison
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
59.0% 41.0%
Kayla Harrison
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
53.7% 46.3%
Kayla Harrison
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM currently viewing
58.4% 41.6%
Kayla Harrison
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
43.7% 56.3%
Amanda Nunes
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
61.4% 38.6%
Kayla Harrison
With Odds · CatBoost
67.5% 32.5%
Kayla Harrison
With Odds · Ensemble
64.8% 35.2%
Kayla Harrison
With Odds · LightGBM
66.5% 33.5%
Kayla Harrison
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
44.5% 55.5%
Amanda Nunes
With Odds · XGBoost
64.9% 35.1%
Kayla Harrison
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
54%
Decision
19%
KO / TKO
27%
Submission
Decision53.9%
KO / TKO19.3%
Submission26.8%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 133.5%
Round 229.0%
Round 3+37.4%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 46% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Kayla Harrison
Amanda Nunes
Elo rating edge
Matchup -94
19%
Net striking dominance
Matchup +0.10
11%
Age
Amanda Nunes 38.5 yrs
9%
Age
Kayla Harrison 36.4 yrs
8%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -8
7%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Amanda Nunes +0.65
6%
Avg takedowns attempted
Amanda Nunes 3.76
5%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup 9%
4%
Fights per year
Amanda Nunes 1.83
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Kayla Harrison 3.53
2%
Strikes absorbed/min
Kayla Harrison 2.09
2%
Last 2 avg fight time
Kayla Harrison 747.50
2%
Elo rating
Amanda Nunes 1,662
2%
Head-strike accuracy
Amanda Nunes 47%
2%
← pushes toward Kayla Harrison pushes toward Amanda Nunes →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Kayla Harrison

Win Streak
3
Finish Rate
67%
Avg Duration
10.6m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
W DEC
W SUB
Height: 173 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 168 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Amanda Nunes

Win Streak
2
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
17.1m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W DEC
L SUB
W SUB
W DEC
Height: 173 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 175 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Kayla Harrison
ADVANTAGE
Amanda Nunes
Striking Accuracy
51.6%
+2.2%
49.4%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.56
+0.45
4.00
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.09
+0.61
2.69
Striking Defense
58.0%
+0.1%
57.9%
Takedown Accuracy
38.0%
+8.5%
46.5%
Takedown Defense
65.4%
+0.0%
65.4%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.10
+0.21
0.31
Avg Control Time (sec)
104.97
+10.85
94.12
Strikes Per Round
17.26
+1.43
18.69
Head Strike %
64.9%
+1.3%
66.2%
Body Strike %
20.8%
+2.8%
18.0%
Leg Strike %
14.2%
+1.6%
15.8%
Last 5 Win Rate
100.0%
+20.0%
80.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
66.7%
+46.7%
20.0%