Islam Makhachev
28-1-0
VS
Ian Machado Garry
"The Future"
17-1-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
49.2%
50.8%
Ian Machado Garry
LightGBM
51.7%
48.3%
Islam Makhachev
Logistic (Core)
46.8%
53.2%
Ian Machado Garry
CatBoost
51.1%
48.9%
Islam Makhachev
Ensemble
currently viewing
54.2%
45.8%
Islam Makhachev
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
55%
Decision
31%
KO / TKO
14%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 45%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Islam Makhachev
Ian Machado Garry
12%
8%
8%
8%
6%
5%
5%
5%
4%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Islam Makhachev
pushes toward Ian Machado Garry →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Islam Makhachev
Win Streak
16
Finish Rate
60%
Avg Duration
16.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
W
SUB
W
SUB
W
KO
W
DEC
Height:
178 cm
Weight:
170 lbs
Reach:
178 cm
Stance:
Southpaw
Ian Machado Garry
Win Streak
2
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
19.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
W
DEC
L
DEC
W
DEC
W
DEC
Height:
190 cm
Weight:
170 lbs
Reach:
188 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Islam Makhachev
ADVANTAGE
Ian Machado Garry
Striking Accuracy
Strikes Landed/Min
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Striking Defense
Takedown Accuracy
Takedown Defense
Knockdowns/Fight
Avg Control Time (sec)
Strikes Per Round
Head Strike %
Body Strike %
Leg Strike %
Last 5 Win Rate
Last 5 Finish Rate