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Islam Makhachev
28-1-0
VS
2026-08-15
UFC 330
Welterweight
Ian Machado Garry
"The Future"
17-1-0
LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Islam Makhachev
51.7% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS CORRECT
Islam Makhachev won
Decision · Round 5 · 5:00
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
49.2% 50.8%
Ian Machado Garry
LightGBM currently viewing
51.7% 48.3%
Islam Makhachev
Logistic (Core)
46.8% 53.2%
Ian Machado Garry
CatBoost
51.1% 48.9%
Islam Makhachev
Ensemble
54.2% 45.8%
Islam Makhachev
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Islam Makhachev
Ian Machado Garry
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
13%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
13%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
12%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Ian Machado Garry
8%
Age
Islam Makhachev
7%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
5%
Avg control time
Islam Makhachev
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Islam Makhachev
4%
Strikes absorbed/min
Islam Makhachev
3%
Finishing threat edge
Matchup
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Islam Makhachev
2%
Reach edge
Matchup
2%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup
2%
Avg takedowns attempted
Ian Machado Garry
2%
← pushes toward Islam Makhachev pushes toward Ian Machado Garry →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Islam Makhachev

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W DEC
W SUB
W SUB
W KO
Height: 178 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 178 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Ian Machado Garry

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
W DEC
W DEC
L DEC
W DEC
Height: 190 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 188 cm
Stance: Orthodox