Islam Makhachev
28-1-0
VS
Ian Machado Garry
"The Future"
17-1-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
49.2%
50.8%
Ian Machado Garry
LightGBM
51.7%
48.3%
Islam Makhachev
Logistic (Core)
currently viewing
46.8%
53.2%
Ian Machado Garry
CatBoost
51.1%
48.9%
Islam Makhachev
Ensemble
54.2%
45.8%
Islam Makhachev
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Islam Makhachev
Ian Machado Garry
12%
8%
8%
8%
6%
5%
5%
5%
4%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Islam Makhachev
pushes toward Ian Machado Garry →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Islam Makhachev
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
W
DEC
W
SUB
W
SUB
W
KO
Height:
178 cm
Weight:
170 lbs
Reach:
178 cm
Stance:
Southpaw
Ian Machado Garry
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
DEC
W
DEC
W
DEC
L
DEC
W
DEC
Height:
190 cm
Weight:
170 lbs
Reach:
188 cm
Stance:
Orthodox