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Mackenzie Dern
16-5-0
VS
2026-08-15
UFC 330
Women's Strawweight
Gillian Robertson
"The Savage"
16-8-0
CATBOOST PREDICTION
Gillian Robertson 'The Savage'
55.6% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS WRONG
Mackenzie Dern won
Decision · Round 5 · 5:00
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
45.6% 54.4%
Gillian Robertson
LightGBM
46.5% 53.5%
Gillian Robertson
Logistic (Core)
44.0% 56.0%
Gillian Robertson
CatBoost currently viewing
44.4% 55.6%
Gillian Robertson
Ensemble
43.8% 56.2%
Gillian Robertson
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Mackenzie Dern
Gillian Robertson
Avg control time
Gillian Robertson
10%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Gillian Robertson
10%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Mackenzie Dern
10%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
8%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
8%
Avg takedowns attempted
Mackenzie Dern
5%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Gillian Robertson
5%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup
4%
Age
Mackenzie Dern
3%
Distance strike defense
Gillian Robertson
3%
Age
Gillian Robertson
3%
Fights per year
Mackenzie Dern
2%
Distance strike defense
Mackenzie Dern
2%
← pushes toward Mackenzie Dern pushes toward Gillian Robertson →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Mackenzie Dern

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W DEC
W SUB
W DEC
L DEC
Height: 163 cm
Weight: 115 lbs
Reach: 160 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Gillian Robertson

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
W DEC
W KO
W DEC
W DEC
Height: 165 cm
Weight: 115 lbs
Reach: 160 cm
Stance: Orthodox