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Mackenzie Dern
16-5-0
VS
2026-08-15
UFC 330
Women's Strawweight
Gillian Robertson
"The Savage"
16-8-0
LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Gillian Robertson 'The Savage'
53.5% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS WRONG
Mackenzie Dern won
Decision · Round 5 · 5:00
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
45.6% 54.4%
Gillian Robertson
LightGBM currently viewing
46.5% 53.5%
Gillian Robertson
Logistic (Core)
44.0% 56.0%
Gillian Robertson
CatBoost
44.4% 55.6%
Gillian Robertson
Ensemble
43.8% 56.2%
Gillian Robertson
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Mackenzie Dern
Gillian Robertson
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Mackenzie Dern
9%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
7%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Gillian Robertson
7%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
6%
Avg control time
Gillian Robertson
6%
Avg takedowns attempted
Mackenzie Dern
6%
Avg takedowns attempted
Gillian Robertson
6%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
5%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup
4%
Strikes absorbed/min
Mackenzie Dern
4%
Age
Gillian Robertson
4%
Distance strike defense
Gillian Robertson
3%
Distance strike defense
Mackenzie Dern
3%
Age
Mackenzie Dern
3%
← pushes toward Mackenzie Dern pushes toward Gillian Robertson →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Mackenzie Dern

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W DEC
W SUB
W DEC
L DEC
Height: 163 cm
Weight: 115 lbs
Reach: 160 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Gillian Robertson

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
W DEC
W KO
W DEC
W DEC
Height: 165 cm
Weight: 115 lbs
Reach: 160 cm
Stance: Orthodox