Mackenzie Dern
16-5-0
VS
2026-08-15
UFC 330
Women's Strawweight
Gillian Robertson
"The Savage"
16-8-0
ENSEMBLE PREDICTION
Gillian Robertson 'The Savage'
56.2% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
60%
Decision
17%
KO / TKO
23%
Submission
Decision59.6%
KO / TKO17.3%
Submission23.1%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 128.5%
Round 231.6%
Round 3+40.0%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 40% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Mackenzie Dern
Gillian Robertson
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Mackenzie Dern -0.48
8%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Gillian Robertson -0.66
7%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup -0.05
6%
Net striking dominance
Matchup -0.10
6%
Age
Mackenzie Dern 33.4 yrs
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Gillian Robertson 4.81
5%
Avg control time
Gillian Robertson 130.85
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Mackenzie Dern 4.41
4%
Age
Gillian Robertson 31.2 yrs
4%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup -8%
4%
Distance strike defense
Mackenzie Dern 56%
3%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -3
3%
Head absorption rate
Mackenzie Dern 59%
3%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Mackenzie Dern 0.85
3%
← pushes toward Mackenzie Dern pushes toward Gillian Robertson →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Mackenzie Dern

Win Streak
3
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
15.6m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W SUB
W DEC
L DEC
L KO
Height: 163 cm
Weight: 115 lbs
Reach: 160 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Gillian Robertson

Win Streak
5
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
12.1m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W KO
W DEC
W DEC
W KO
Height: 165 cm
Weight: 115 lbs
Reach: 160 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Mackenzie Dern
ADVANTAGE
Gillian Robertson
Striking Accuracy
44.7%
+3.1%
47.7%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.58
+0.81
2.76
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.68
+0.92
2.76
Striking Defense
51.7%
+4.9%
56.6%
Takedown Accuracy
27.9%
+11.1%
39.1%
Takedown Defense
49.8%
+5.1%
54.9%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.11
+0.06
0.05
Avg Control Time (sec)
86.13
+44.72
130.85
Strikes Per Round
17.84
+3.11
14.73
Head Strike %
71.2%
+6.5%
64.6%
Body Strike %
16.2%
+1.8%
18.0%
Leg Strike %
12.6%
+4.7%
17.3%
Last 5 Win Rate
60.0%
+40.0%
100.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
20.0%
+20.0%
40.0%