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Ryan Gandra
"Problema"
8-1-0
Thin UFC data
VS
2026-09-19
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Middleweight
Ozzy Diaz
10-3-0
CATBOOST PREDICTION
Ryan Gandra 'Problema'
74.8% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
77.9% 22.1%
Ryan Gandra
LightGBM
75.9% 24.1%
Ryan Gandra
Logistic (Core)
76.3% 23.7%
Ryan Gandra
CatBoost currently viewing
74.8% 25.2%
Ryan Gandra
Ensemble
75.2% 24.8%
Ryan Gandra
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
26%
Decision
57%
KO / TKO
17%
Submission
Decision26.1%
KO / TKO57.0%
Submission16.8%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 160.9%
Round 226.0%
Round 3+13.2%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 74% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Ryan Gandra
Ozzy Diaz
Elo rating edge
Matchup 65
15%
Net striking dominance
Matchup +0.46
12%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Ozzy Diaz -3.18
12%
Age
Ozzy Diaz 35.8 yrs
8%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup -4.46
6%
Strikes absorbed/min
Ryan Gandra 2.04
5%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup -0.03
4%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -4
4%
Age
Ryan Gandra 31.4 yrs
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Ryan Gandra 1.70
3%
Distance strike defense
Ozzy Diaz 63%
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Ozzy Diaz 2.15
3%
Significant reach edge
Matchup -1.0 cm
2%
KO power vs chin mismatch
Matchup +0.19
2%
← pushes toward Ryan Gandra pushes toward Ozzy Diaz →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Ryan Gandra

Win Streak
2
Finish Rate
100%
Avg Duration
1.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W KO
Height: 185 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 188 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Ozzy Diaz

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
7.9m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
W DEC
L KO
Height: 193 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 201 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Ryan Gandra
ADVANTAGE
Ozzy Diaz
Striking Accuracy
45.7%
+2.1%
47.8%
Strikes Landed/Min
2.72
+1.06
3.77
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.04
+2.22
4.25
Striking Defense
55.6%
+5.3%
60.8%
Takedown Accuracy
37.5%
+6.8%
30.7%
Takedown Defense
62.5%
+0.5%
63.0%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.52
+0.38
0.14
Avg Control Time (sec)
71.70
+6.16
77.86
Strikes Per Round
14.11
+2.99
17.10
Head Strike %
66.4%
+5.0%
71.4%
Body Strike %
19.3%
+2.6%
16.7%
Leg Strike %
14.3%
+2.4%
11.9%
Last 5 Win Rate
100.0%
+66.7%
33.3%
Last 5 Finish Rate
100.0%
+100.0%
0.0%