Ryan Gandra
"Problema"
8-1-0
Thin UFC data
VS
Ozzy Diaz
10-3-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
currently viewing
77.9%
22.1%
Ryan Gandra
LightGBM
75.9%
24.1%
Ryan Gandra
Logistic (Core)
76.3%
23.7%
Ryan Gandra
CatBoost
74.8%
25.2%
Ryan Gandra
Ensemble
75.2%
24.8%
Ryan Gandra
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
26%
Decision
57%
KO / TKO
17%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 74%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Ryan Gandra
Ozzy Diaz
13%
9%
8%
7%
6%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
← pushes toward Ryan Gandra
pushes toward Ozzy Diaz →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Ryan Gandra
Win Streak
2
Finish Rate
100%
Avg Duration
1.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
KO
W
KO
Height:
185 cm
Weight:
185 lbs
Reach:
188 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Ozzy Diaz
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
7.9m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
KO
W
DEC
L
KO
Height:
193 cm
Weight:
185 lbs
Reach:
201 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Ryan Gandra
ADVANTAGE
Ozzy Diaz
Striking Accuracy
Strikes Landed/Min
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Striking Defense
Takedown Accuracy
Takedown Defense
Knockdowns/Fight
Avg Control Time (sec)
Strikes Per Round
Head Strike %
Body Strike %
Leg Strike %
Last 5 Win Rate
Last 5 Finish Rate