Ryan Gandra vs Ozzy Diaz

Ryan Gandra

"Problema"

8-1-0

VS

2026-09-19

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2

Middleweight

Ozzy Diaz

10-3-0

What Every Model Says

Logistic (Core)

market-margin__xgb-full

No Age · CatBoost

No Age · Ensemble

No Age · LightGBM

No Age · Logistic (Core)

No Age · XGBoost

Recency-Heavy · CatBoost

Recency-Heavy · Ensemble

Recency-Heavy · LightGBM

Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core) currently viewing

Recency-Heavy · XGBoost

With Odds · CatBoost

With Odds · Ensemble

With Odds · LightGBM

With Odds · Logistic (Core)

With Odds · XGBoost

Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.

How It Ends

29%

Decision

54%

KO / TKO

17%

Submission

Decision28.9%

KO / TKO54.3%

Submission16.8%

If it's a finish, which round

Round 169.4%

Round 218.7%

Round 3+12.0%

A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 71% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.

Why XGBoost leans this way

Ryan Gandra

Ozzy Diaz

Strike rate delta r1 to r3

Ozzy Diaz

12%

Elo rating edge

Matchup

10%

Net striking dominance

Matchup

8%

Age

Ozzy Diaz

6%

Avg takedowns attempted

Ryan Gandra

5%

Strikes absorbed/min

Ryan Gandra

5%

Strikes absorbed/min

Ozzy Diaz

3%

Age edge (significant gap)

Matchup

3%

Last 2 avg fight time

Ryan Gandra

3%

Avg takedowns attempted

Ozzy Diaz

3%

Reach edge

Matchup

3%

Experience edge (total fights)

Matchup

3%

Defensive skill edge

Matchup

3%

Body strikes absorbed per min

Ryan Gandra

3%

← pushes toward Ryan Gandra pushes toward Ozzy Diaz →

Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.