David Martinez
"Doctor"
13-1-0
VS
2026-09-12
UFC Fight Night: Elliott vs. Chairez
Bantamweight
Dan Ige
"50K"
19-10-0
WITH ODDS · ENSEMBLE PREDICTION
David Martinez 'Doctor'
80.0% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS CORRECT
David Martinez 'Doctor' won
Decision · Round 3 · 5:00
How It Ends
55%
Decision
34%
KO / TKO
11%
Submission
Decision55.0%
KO / TKO34.0%
Submission10.9%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 148.6%
Round 231.8%
Round 3+19.6%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 45% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
David Martinez
Dan Ige
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
13%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
13%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
8%
Age
Dan Ige
7%
Age
David Martinez
6%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
David Martinez
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Dan Ige
5%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
4%
Distance strike defense
David Martinez
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Dan Ige
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
David Martinez
3%
Striking defense
David Martinez
2%
Sub attempts/fight
Dan Ige
2%
Fights per year
David Martinez
2%
← pushes toward David Martinez pushes toward Dan Ige →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

David Martinez

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W DEC
W DEC
W KO
Height: 165 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 170 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Dan Ige

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L KO
L DEC
W KO
L DEC
Height: 170 cm
Weight: 145 lbs
Reach: 180 cm
Stance: Orthodox