David Martinez
"Doctor"
13-1-0
VS
Dan Ige
"50K"
19-10-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
79.5%
20.5%
David Martinez
LightGBM
79.0%
21.0%
David Martinez
Logistic (Core)
72.2%
27.8%
David Martinez
CatBoost
78.7%
21.3%
David Martinez
Ensemble
78.3%
21.7%
David Martinez
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
79.3%
20.7%
David Martinez
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
79.2%
20.8%
David Martinez
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
79.2%
20.8%
David Martinez
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
71.9%
28.1%
David Martinez
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
81.2%
18.8%
David Martinez
With Odds · CatBoost
81.3%
18.7%
David Martinez
With Odds · Ensemble
80.0%
20.0%
David Martinez
With Odds · LightGBM
80.4%
19.6%
David Martinez
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
72.0%
28.0%
David Martinez
With Odds · XGBoost
currently viewing
79.6%
20.4%
David Martinez
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
55%
Decision
34%
KO / TKO
11%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 45%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
David Martinez
Dan Ige
34%
11%
6%
5%
4%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
← pushes toward David Martinez
pushes toward Dan Ige →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
David Martinez
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
W
DEC
W
DEC
W
KO
Height:
165 cm
Weight:
135 lbs
Reach:
170 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Dan Ige
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
DEC
L
KO
L
DEC
W
KO
L
DEC
Height:
170 cm
Weight:
145 lbs
Reach:
180 cm
Stance:
Orthodox