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Mansur Abdul-Malik
8-0-1
VS
2026-08-15
UFC 330
Middleweight
Dustin Stoltzfus
16-8-0
CATBOOST PREDICTION
Mansur Abdul-Malik
71.5% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS WRONG
Dustin Stoltzfus won
Submission · Round 2 · 4:25
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
76.2% 23.8%
Mansur Abdul-Malik
LightGBM
74.7% 25.3%
Mansur Abdul-Malik
Logistic (Core)
73.0% 27.0%
Mansur Abdul-Malik
CatBoost currently viewing
71.5% 28.5%
Mansur Abdul-Malik
Ensemble
73.7% 26.3%
Mansur Abdul-Malik
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Mansur Abdul-Malik
Dustin Stoltzfus
Net striking dominance
Matchup
15%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
15%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
13%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
8%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Dustin Stoltzfus
6%
Age
Dustin Stoltzfus
6%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Mansur Abdul-Malik
6%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
5%
Age
Mansur Abdul-Malik
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Dustin Stoltzfus
3%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup
2%
Distance strike defense
Dustin Stoltzfus
2%
Fights per year
Mansur Abdul-Malik
1%
Finishing threat edge
Matchup
1%
← pushes toward Mansur Abdul-Malik pushes toward Dustin Stoltzfus →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Mansur Abdul-Malik

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L SUB
L KO
W SUB
D DEC
W KO
Height: 188 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 203 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Dustin Stoltzfus

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
L DEC
L DEC
W KO
L KO
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Orthodox