Mansur Abdul-Malik
8-0-1
VS
Dustin Stoltzfus
16-8-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
76.2%
23.8%
Mansur Abdul-Malik
LightGBM
currently viewing
74.7%
25.3%
Mansur Abdul-Malik
Logistic (Core)
73.0%
27.0%
Mansur Abdul-Malik
CatBoost
71.5%
28.5%
Mansur Abdul-Malik
Ensemble
73.7%
26.3%
Mansur Abdul-Malik
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
38%
Decision
41%
KO / TKO
22%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 62%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Mansur Abdul-Malik
Dustin Stoltzfus
18%
12%
11%
6%
6%
5%
5%
5%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Mansur Abdul-Malik
pushes toward Dustin Stoltzfus →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Mansur Abdul-Malik
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
60%
Avg Duration
7.3m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
KO
W
SUB
D
DEC
W
KO
W
KO
Height:
188 cm
Weight:
185 lbs
Reach:
203 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Dustin Stoltzfus
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
9.7m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
DEC
L
DEC
W
KO
L
KO
W
SUB
Height:
183 cm
Weight:
185 lbs
Reach:
190 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Mansur Abdul-Malik
ADVANTAGE
Dustin Stoltzfus
Striking Accuracy
Strikes Landed/Min
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Striking Defense
Takedown Accuracy
Takedown Defense
Knockdowns/Fight
Avg Control Time (sec)
Strikes Per Round
Head Strike %
Body Strike %
Leg Strike %
Last 5 Win Rate
Last 5 Finish Rate