Mansur Abdul-Malik
8-0-1
VS
2026-08-15
UFC 330
Middleweight
Dustin Stoltzfus
16-8-0
XGBOOST PREDICTION
Mansur Abdul-Malik
76.2% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
38%
Decision
41%
KO / TKO
22%
Submission
Decision37.7%
KO / TKO40.6%
Submission21.7%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 158.5%
Round 226.0%
Round 3+15.5%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 62% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Mansur Abdul-Malik
Dustin Stoltzfus
Elo rating edge
Matchup 83
11%
Net striking dominance
Matchup -1.24
11%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup -5.89
11%
Age
Dustin Stoltzfus 34.7 yrs
7%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Mansur Abdul-Malik -0.37
6%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -15
6%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Dustin Stoltzfus +0.68
5%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.05
4%
Age
Mansur Abdul-Malik 28.9 yrs
3%
Head absorption rate
Mansur Abdul-Malik 58%
3%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup 10%
3%
Fights per year
Mansur Abdul-Malik 3.62
3%
Last 2 avg fight time
Mansur Abdul-Malik 444
2%
Head absorption rate
Dustin Stoltzfus 64%
2%
← pushes toward Mansur Abdul-Malik pushes toward Dustin Stoltzfus →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Mansur Abdul-Malik

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
60%
Avg Duration
7.3m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
W SUB
D DEC
W KO
W KO
Height: 188 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 203 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Dustin Stoltzfus

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
9.7m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L DEC
W KO
L KO
W SUB
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Mansur Abdul-Malik
ADVANTAGE
Dustin Stoltzfus
Striking Accuracy
42.2%
+3.5%
45.7%
Strikes Landed/Min
2.15
+0.91
3.06
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.29
+0.33
2.96
Striking Defense
48.0%
+3.0%
51.1%
Takedown Accuracy
39.4%
+2.7%
36.8%
Takedown Defense
72.0%
+12.5%
59.5%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.19
+0.05
0.24
Avg Control Time (sec)
65.90
+20.21
86.11
Strikes Per Round
12.02
+3.06
15.08
Head Strike %
68.5%
+13.3%
55.2%
Body Strike %
17.3%
+7.0%
24.3%
Leg Strike %
14.1%
+6.3%
20.5%
Last 5 Win Rate
60.0%
+20.0%
40.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
60.0%
+20.0%
40.0%