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Mansur Abdul-Malik
8-0-1
VS
2026-08-15
UFC 330
Middleweight
Dustin Stoltzfus
16-8-0
XGBOOST PREDICTION
Mansur Abdul-Malik
76.2% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS WRONG
Dustin Stoltzfus won
Submission · Round 2 · 4:25
What Every Model Says
XGBoost currently viewing
76.2% 23.8%
Mansur Abdul-Malik
LightGBM
74.7% 25.3%
Mansur Abdul-Malik
Logistic (Core)
73.0% 27.0%
Mansur Abdul-Malik
CatBoost
71.5% 28.5%
Mansur Abdul-Malik
Ensemble
73.7% 26.3%
Mansur Abdul-Malik
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Mansur Abdul-Malik
Dustin Stoltzfus
Elo rating edge
Matchup
11%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
11%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
11%
Age
Dustin Stoltzfus
7%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Mansur Abdul-Malik
6%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
6%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Dustin Stoltzfus
5%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
4%
Age
Mansur Abdul-Malik
3%
Head absorption rate
Mansur Abdul-Malik
3%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup
3%
Fights per year
Mansur Abdul-Malik
3%
Last 2 avg fight time
Mansur Abdul-Malik
2%
Head absorption rate
Dustin Stoltzfus
2%
← pushes toward Mansur Abdul-Malik pushes toward Dustin Stoltzfus →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Mansur Abdul-Malik

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L SUB
L KO
W SUB
D DEC
W KO
Height: 188 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 203 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Dustin Stoltzfus

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
L DEC
L DEC
W KO
L KO
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Orthodox