Back
Waldo Cortes Acosta
"Salsa Boy"
16-2-0
VS
2026-09-12
UFC Fight Night: Elliott vs. Chairez
Heavyweight
Curtis Blaydes
"Razor"
19-5-0
LOGISTIC (CORE) PREDICTION
Waldo Cortes Acosta 'Salsa Boy'
60.9% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
65.5% 34.5%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
LightGBM
70.5% 29.5%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Logistic (Core) currently viewing
60.9% 39.1%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
CatBoost
68.3% 31.7%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Ensemble
71.8% 28.2%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
42%
Decision
50%
KO / TKO
9%
Submission
Decision41.6%
KO / TKO49.7%
Submission8.7%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 139.8%
Round 238.5%
Round 3+21.6%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 58% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Curtis Blaydes
Head absorption rate
Waldo Cortes Acosta 50%
8%
Age
Waldo Cortes Acosta 34.9 yrs
8%
Net striking dominance
Matchup +0.59
7%
Age
Curtis Blaydes 35.6 yrs
7%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Waldo Cortes Acosta -1.88
6%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Curtis Blaydes -0.83
6%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.11
6%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -6
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Curtis Blaydes 4.31
4%
Striking accuracy
Curtis Blaydes 52%
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Waldo Cortes Acosta 1.05
3%
Fights per year
Waldo Cortes Acosta 3.69
3%
Head-strike accuracy
Curtis Blaydes 45%
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Waldo Cortes Acosta 3.32
2%
← pushes toward Waldo Cortes Acosta pushes toward Curtis Blaydes →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Waldo Cortes Acosta

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
60%
Avg Duration
8.7m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
W KO
W KO
W KO
L DEC
Height: 193 cm
Weight: 260 lbs
Reach: 198 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Curtis Blaydes

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
7.9m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
W DEC
L KO
W KO
L KO
Height: 193 cm
Weight: 265 lbs
Reach: 203 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Waldo Cortes Acosta
ADVANTAGE
Curtis Blaydes
Striking Accuracy
47.9%
+4.5%
52.4%
Strikes Landed/Min
4.30
+0.27
4.57
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.32
+0.85
4.17
Striking Defense
54.5%
+5.4%
49.0%
Takedown Accuracy
40.5%
+7.8%
32.7%
Takedown Defense
70.6%
+16.0%
54.6%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.46
+0.33
0.13
Avg Control Time (sec)
65.65
+25.20
90.85
Strikes Per Round
20.06
+0.41
20.47
Head Strike %
68.1%
+5.1%
73.2%
Body Strike %
15.4%
+1.9%
13.5%
Leg Strike %
16.5%
+3.2%
13.4%
Last 5 Win Rate
60.0%
+20.0%
40.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
60.0%
+40.0%
20.0%