Waldo Cortes Acosta
"Salsa Boy"
16-2-0
VS
Curtis Blaydes
"Razor"
19-5-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
71.6%
28.4%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
LightGBM
70.0%
30.0%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Logistic (Core)
60.6%
39.4%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
CatBoost
67.1%
32.9%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Ensemble
72.5%
27.5%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
70.8%
29.2%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
73.5%
26.5%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
73.7%
26.3%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
59.1%
40.9%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
71.4%
28.6%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
With Odds · CatBoost
67.9%
32.1%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
With Odds · Ensemble
68.3%
31.7%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
With Odds · LightGBM
currently viewing
68.0%
32.0%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
60.7%
39.3%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
With Odds · XGBoost
68.1%
31.9%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
41%
Decision
50%
KO / TKO
9%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 59%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Curtis Blaydes
20%
7%
7%
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
← pushes toward Waldo Cortes Acosta
pushes toward Curtis Blaydes →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
DEC
L
DEC
W
KO
W
KO
W
KO
Height:
193 cm
Weight:
260 lbs
Reach:
198 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Curtis Blaydes
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
L
DEC
W
DEC
L
KO
W
KO
Height:
193 cm
Weight:
265 lbs
Reach:
203 cm
Stance:
Orthodox