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Chidi Njokuani
"Bang Bang"
25-11-0
VS
2026-08-15
UFC 330
Welterweight
Joel Alvarez
"El Fenomeno"
23-3-0
CATBOOST PREDICTION
Joel Alvarez 'El Fenomeno'
59.3% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS WRONG
Chidi Njokuani 'Bang Bang' won
Decision · Round 3 · 5:00
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
43.8% 56.2%
Joel Alvarez
LightGBM
42.2% 57.8%
Joel Alvarez
Logistic (Core)
33.3% 66.7%
Joel Alvarez
CatBoost currently viewing
40.7% 59.3%
Joel Alvarez
Ensemble
40.1% 59.9%
Joel Alvarez
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Chidi Njokuani
Joel Alvarez
Elo rating edge
Matchup
17%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
12%
Age
Chidi Njokuani
9%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Chidi Njokuani
8%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
7%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
7%
Age
Joel Alvarez
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Joel Alvarez
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Chidi Njokuani
4%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Joel Alvarez
3%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
2%
Fights per year
Joel Alvarez
2%
Head absorption rate
Joel Alvarez
2%
Distance strike defense
Chidi Njokuani
2%
← pushes toward Chidi Njokuani pushes toward Joel Alvarez →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Chidi Njokuani

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
L DEC
L SUB
W KO
W DEC
Height: 190 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 203 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Joel Alvarez

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L SUB
W DEC
W KO
W KO
Height: 190 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 196 cm
Stance: Orthodox