Chidi Njokuani
"Bang Bang"
25-11-0
VS
Joel Alvarez
"El Fenomeno"
23-3-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
43.8%
56.2%
Joel Alvarez
LightGBM
currently viewing
42.2%
57.8%
Joel Alvarez
Logistic (Core)
33.3%
66.7%
Joel Alvarez
CatBoost
40.7%
59.3%
Joel Alvarez
Ensemble
40.1%
59.9%
Joel Alvarez
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
47%
Decision
37%
KO / TKO
16%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 53%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Chidi Njokuani
Joel Alvarez
15%
11%
9%
8%
6%
5%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
← pushes toward Chidi Njokuani
pushes toward Joel Alvarez →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Chidi Njokuani
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
10.7m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
DEC
L
SUB
W
KO
W
DEC
W
DEC
Height:
190 cm
Weight:
170 lbs
Reach:
203 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Joel Alvarez
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
60%
Avg Duration
9.4m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
SUB
W
DEC
W
KO
W
KO
W
SUB
Height:
190 cm
Weight:
155 lbs
Reach:
196 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Chidi Njokuani
ADVANTAGE
Joel Alvarez
Striking Accuracy
Strikes Landed/Min
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Striking Defense
Takedown Accuracy
Takedown Defense
Knockdowns/Fight
Avg Control Time (sec)
Strikes Per Round
Head Strike %
Body Strike %
Leg Strike %
Last 5 Win Rate
Last 5 Finish Rate