Back
Chidi Njokuani
"Bang Bang"
25-11-0
VS
2026-08-15
UFC 330
Welterweight
Joel Alvarez
"El Fenomeno"
23-3-0
XGBOOST PREDICTION
Joel Alvarez 'El Fenomeno'
56.2% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS WRONG
Chidi Njokuani 'Bang Bang' won
Decision · Round 3 · 5:00
What Every Model Says
XGBoost currently viewing
43.8% 56.2%
Joel Alvarez
LightGBM
42.2% 57.8%
Joel Alvarez
Logistic (Core)
33.3% 66.7%
Joel Alvarez
CatBoost
40.7% 59.3%
Joel Alvarez
Ensemble
40.1% 59.9%
Joel Alvarez
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Chidi Njokuani
Joel Alvarez
Elo rating edge
Matchup
15%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Chidi Njokuani
8%
Age
Chidi Njokuani
7%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
7%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
7%
Avg takedowns attempted
Joel Alvarez
6%
Striking accuracy
Joel Alvarez
4%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Chidi Njokuani
3%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
3%
Striking accuracy
Chidi Njokuani
3%
Age
Joel Alvarez
3%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Joel Alvarez
3%
Td defense round 1
Joel Alvarez
2%
← pushes toward Chidi Njokuani pushes toward Joel Alvarez →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Chidi Njokuani

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
L DEC
L SUB
W KO
W DEC
Height: 190 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 203 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Joel Alvarez

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L SUB
W DEC
W KO
W KO
Height: 190 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 196 cm
Stance: Orthodox