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Tanner Boser
"The Bulldozer"
21-10-1
VS
2026-10-17
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
Heavyweight
Jhonata Diniz
9-2-0
LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Tanner Boser 'The Bulldozer'
54.1% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
51.7% 48.3%
Tanner Boser
LightGBM currently viewing
54.1% 45.9%
Tanner Boser
Logistic (Core)
49.9% 50.1%
Jhonata Diniz
CatBoost
53.0% 47.0%
Tanner Boser
Ensemble
55.6% 44.4%
Tanner Boser
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
41%
Decision
48%
KO / TKO
11%
Submission
Decision41.4%
KO / TKO47.9%
Submission10.7%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 150.5%
Round 231.1%
Round 3+18.4%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 59% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Tanner Boser
Jhonata Diniz
Net striking dominance
Matchup +0.80
14%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Jhonata Diniz -1.50
11%
Age
Tanner Boser 35.2 yrs
9%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +21
8%
Age
Jhonata Diniz 35.3 yrs
7%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Tanner Boser -0.80
6%
Avg takedowns attempted
Jhonata Diniz 1.09
6%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup -15%
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Tanner Boser 1.28
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Tanner Boser 3.42
3%
Fights per year
Tanner Boser 1.69
3%
Elo rating edge
Matchup -16
2%
Striking accuracy
Tanner Boser 52%
2%
Reach edge
Matchup -10.2 cm
2%
← pushes toward Tanner Boser pushes toward Jhonata Diniz →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Tanner Boser

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
9.9m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
W DEC
L KO
L DEC
W KO
Height: 188 cm
Weight: 205 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Jhonata Diniz

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
11.3m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
W DEC
L KO
W DEC
W KO
Height: 193 cm
Weight: 254 lbs
Reach: 201 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Tanner Boser
ADVANTAGE
Jhonata Diniz
Striking Accuracy
51.8%
+1.1%
52.8%
Strikes Landed/Min
4.32
+1.00
3.32
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.42
+0.20
3.23
Striking Defense
54.3%
+3.0%
57.3%
Takedown Accuracy
35.0%
+2.5%
37.5%
Takedown Defense
68.7%
+2.8%
65.9%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.17
+0.02
0.19
Avg Control Time (sec)
72.64
+2.69
69.95
Strikes Per Round
19.00
+3.12
15.88
Head Strike %
58.2%
+10.4%
68.6%
Body Strike %
19.5%
+5.7%
13.8%
Leg Strike %
22.4%
+4.7%
17.6%
Last 5 Win Rate
40.0%
+20.0%
60.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
20.0%
EVEN
20.0%