The gap uses whichever model you've selected. Value always comes from Market Margin, the one model whose disagreements with the betting line were backtested (flagged sides returned about +8% for favorites and +18% for underdogs on flat bets at the opening price across ~2,800 past fights). Other models' disagreements with the market haven't held up, so they don't get a value flag. It's measured against the opening line — if the price has moved, the edge will be different.

Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.

"Over 1.5" means the fight lasts past the middle of round 2, the way sportsbooks settle it. Fair odds are the break-even price with no vig, so compare them with a book's line. On unseen fights this model beat the plain base rate by about 4% (log loss; 51% of 3-round fights go the distance), so treat it as a tilt away from the base rate, not a certainty.

Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.