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Tanner Boser
"The Bulldozer"
21-10-1
VS
2026-10-17
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
Heavyweight
Jhonata Diniz
9-2-0
WITH ODDS · XGBOOST PREDICTION
Jhonata Diniz
56.5% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
52.3% 47.7%
Tanner Boser
LightGBM
51.8% 48.2%
Tanner Boser
Logistic (Core)
49.9% 50.1%
Jhonata Diniz
CatBoost
54.8% 45.2%
Tanner Boser
Ensemble
54.2% 45.8%
Tanner Boser
No Age · CatBoost
48.0% 52.0%
Jhonata Diniz
No Age · Ensemble
48.9% 51.1%
Jhonata Diniz
No Age · LightGBM
47.7% 52.3%
Jhonata Diniz
No Age · Logistic (Core)
45.0% 55.0%
Jhonata Diniz
No Age · XGBoost
44.6% 55.4%
Jhonata Diniz
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
51.9% 48.1%
Tanner Boser
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
53.6% 46.4%
Tanner Boser
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
52.8% 47.2%
Tanner Boser
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
45.6% 54.4%
Jhonata Diniz
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
51.3% 48.7%
Tanner Boser
With Odds · CatBoost
49.4% 50.6%
Jhonata Diniz
With Odds · Ensemble
51.1% 48.9%
Tanner Boser
With Odds · LightGBM
48.8% 51.2%
Jhonata Diniz
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
49.9% 50.1%
Jhonata Diniz
With Odds · XGBoost currently viewing
43.5% 56.5%
Jhonata Diniz
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
45%
Decision
45%
KO / TKO
11%
Submission
Decision44.5%
KO / TKO44.5%
Submission10.9%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 151.2%
Round 232.1%
Round 3+16.7%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 55% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Tanner Boser
Jhonata Diniz
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +21
12%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Jhonata Diniz -1.50
6%
Sub attempts/fight
Tanner Boser 0.20
6%
Net striking dominance
Matchup +0.80
6%
Age
Tanner Boser 35.2 yrs
6%
Market latest prob diff
Matchup
5%
Age
Jhonata Diniz 35.3 yrs
4%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Tanner Boser -0.80
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Jhonata Diniz 1.09
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Tanner Boser 1.28
4%
Sub attempts/fight
Jhonata Diniz 0.19
4%
Elo trend (last 3)
Tanner Boser -23.87
4%
Total career fights (incl. non-UFC)
Jhonata Diniz 11
3%
Striking accuracy
Tanner Boser 52%
3%
← pushes toward Tanner Boser pushes toward Jhonata Diniz →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Tanner Boser

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
9.9m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
W DEC
L KO
L DEC
W KO
Height: 188 cm
Weight: 205 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Jhonata Diniz

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
11.3m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
W DEC
L KO
W DEC
W KO
Height: 193 cm
Weight: 254 lbs
Reach: 201 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Tanner Boser
ADVANTAGE
Jhonata Diniz
Striking Accuracy
51.8%
+1.1%
52.8%
Strikes Landed/Min
4.32
+1.00
3.32
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.42
+0.20
3.23
Striking Defense
54.3%
+3.0%
57.3%
Takedown Accuracy
35.0%
+2.5%
37.5%
Takedown Defense
68.7%
+2.8%
65.9%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.17
+0.02
0.19
Avg Control Time (sec)
72.64
+2.69
69.95
Strikes Per Round
19.00
+3.12
15.88
Head Strike %
58.2%
+10.4%
68.6%
Body Strike %
19.5%
+5.7%
13.8%
Leg Strike %
22.4%
+4.7%
17.6%
Last 5 Win Rate
40.0%
+20.0%
60.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
20.0%
EVEN
20.0%