Shanelle Dyer
"The Nightmare"
6-1-0
VS
2026-08-22
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Women's Strawweight
Elise Reed
8-5-0
LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Shanelle Dyer 'The Nightmare'
78.8% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS CORRECT
Shanelle Dyer 'The Nightmare' won
KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:42
How It Ends
62%
Decision
22%
KO / TKO
16%
Submission
Decision62.1%
KO / TKO21.8%
Submission16.1%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 150.3%
Round 236.2%
Round 3+13.5%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 38% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Shanelle Dyer
Elise Reed
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
15%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
11%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Elise Reed
10%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
6%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
5%
Age
Shanelle Dyer
5%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
4%
Finishing threat edge
Matchup
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Shanelle Dyer
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Elise Reed
3%
Age
Elise Reed
3%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup
3%
KO power vs chin mismatch
Matchup
3%
Distance strike defense
Elise Reed
2%
← pushes toward Shanelle Dyer pushes toward Elise Reed →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Shanelle Dyer

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W KO
Height: 168 cm
Weight: 115 lbs
Reach: 165 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Elise Reed

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
L KO
W DEC
L SUB
W DEC
Height: 160 cm
Weight: 115 lbs
Reach: 160 cm
Stance: Orthodox