Yousri Belgaroui
9-3-0
VS
2026-09-12
UFC Fight Night: Elliott vs. Chairez
Middleweight
Djorden Santos
"Shakur"
11-2-0
ENSEMBLE PREDICTION
Yousri Belgaroui
74.4% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS CORRECT
Yousri Belgaroui won
KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:25
How It Ends
48%
Decision
39%
KO / TKO
13%
Submission
Decision47.7%
KO / TKO39.2%
Submission13.1%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 152.1%
Round 229.4%
Round 3+18.5%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 52% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Yousri Belgaroui
Djorden Santos
Market latest prob diff
Matchup
42%
Market opening prob diff
Matchup
13%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Djorden Santos
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Djorden Santos
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Yousri Belgaroui
3%
Age
Yousri Belgaroui
3%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Yousri Belgaroui
2%
Sub attempts/fight
Djorden Santos
2%
Sub attempts/fight
Yousri Belgaroui
2%
Avg takedowns attempted
Yousri Belgaroui
2%
Striking accuracy
Yousri Belgaroui
1%
Avg takedowns attempted
Djorden Santos
1%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
1%
← pushes toward Yousri Belgaroui pushes toward Djorden Santos →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Yousri Belgaroui

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W KO
W KO
Height: 198 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 201 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Djorden Santos

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
L SUB
W DEC
L DEC
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Orthodox