Yousri Belgaroui
9-3-0
VS
2026-09-12
UFC Fight Night: Elliott vs. Chairez
Middleweight
Djorden Santos
"Shakur"
11-2-0
LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Yousri Belgaroui
69.7% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS CORRECT
Yousri Belgaroui won
KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:25
How It Ends
48%
Decision
39%
KO / TKO
13%
Submission
Decision47.7%
KO / TKO39.2%
Submission13.1%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 152.1%
Round 229.4%
Round 3+18.5%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 52% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Yousri Belgaroui
Djorden Santos
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
15%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
14%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
11%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Djorden Santos
8%
Age
Yousri Belgaroui
6%
Strikes absorbed/min
Yousri Belgaroui
4%
Finishing threat edge
Matchup
4%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Yousri Belgaroui
4%
Age
Djorden Santos
3%
Fights per year
Yousri Belgaroui
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Djorden Santos
3%
Distance strike defense
Yousri Belgaroui
3%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Yousri Belgaroui
3%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
2%
← pushes toward Yousri Belgaroui pushes toward Djorden Santos →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Yousri Belgaroui

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W KO
W KO
Height: 198 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 201 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Djorden Santos

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
L SUB
W DEC
L DEC
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Orthodox