Yousri Belgaroui
9-3-0
VS
2026-09-12
UFC Fight Night: Elliott vs. Chairez
Middleweight
Djorden Santos
"Shakur"
11-2-0
XGBOOST PREDICTION
Yousri Belgaroui
68.4% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS CORRECT
Yousri Belgaroui won
KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:25
How It Ends
48%
Decision
39%
KO / TKO
13%
Submission
Decision47.7%
KO / TKO39.2%
Submission13.1%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 152.1%
Round 229.4%
Round 3+18.5%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 52% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Yousri Belgaroui
Djorden Santos
Net striking dominance
Matchup
12%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
11%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
10%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Djorden Santos
8%
Age
Yousri Belgaroui
6%
Age
Djorden Santos
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Djorden Santos
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Yousri Belgaroui
3%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Yousri Belgaroui
3%
Finishing threat edge
Matchup
3%
Distance strike defense
Yousri Belgaroui
3%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Yousri Belgaroui
3%
Last 2 avg fight time
Djorden Santos
3%
← pushes toward Yousri Belgaroui pushes toward Djorden Santos →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Yousri Belgaroui

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W KO
W KO
Height: 198 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 201 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Djorden Santos

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
L SUB
W DEC
L DEC
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Orthodox