Edmen Shahbazyan
"The Golden Boy"
16-5-0
VS
2026-09-19
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Middleweight
Brunno Ferreira
"The Hulk"
14-2-0
LOGISTIC (CORE) PREDICTION
Edmen Shahbazyan 'The Golden Boy'
68.3% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
41%
Decision
44%
KO / TKO
15%
Submission
Decision40.6%
KO / TKO44.1%
Submission15.3%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 149.2%
Round 236.0%
Round 3+14.8%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 59% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Edmen Shahbazyan
Brunno Ferreira
Net striking dominance
Matchup +0.99
16%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Edmen Shahbazyan +1.12
8%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup -5.04
8%
Age
Brunno Ferreira 33.9 yrs
6%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +5
6%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.07
5%
Age
Edmen Shahbazyan 28.8 yrs
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Edmen Shahbazyan 1.68
4%
Fights in last 2 years
Brunno Ferreira 6
3%
Fights per year
Edmen Shahbazyan 2.00
3%
Distance strike defense
Brunno Ferreira 56%
3%
Sub attempts/fight
Edmen Shahbazyan 0.21
3%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Brunno Ferreira -0.17
3%
KO power vs chin mismatch
Matchup +0.04
2%
← pushes toward Edmen Shahbazyan pushes toward Brunno Ferreira →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Edmen Shahbazyan

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
9.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
W KO
W DEC
W KO
L SUB
Height: 188 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Brunno Ferreira

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
9.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L KO
W DEC
W SUB
W SUB
Height: 178 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 183 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Edmen Shahbazyan
ADVANTAGE
Brunno Ferreira
Striking Accuracy
47.0%
+0.3%
46.7%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.85
+1.19
2.66
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.41
+0.21
3.21
Striking Defense
54.0%
+0.9%
53.1%
Takedown Accuracy
34.4%
+4.6%
29.8%
Takedown Defense
67.0%
+14.1%
52.9%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.41
+0.20
0.21
Avg Control Time (sec)
61.55
+7.37
54.18
Strikes Per Round
18.00
+4.35
13.65
Head Strike %
71.6%
+4.8%
66.7%
Body Strike %
18.1%
+0.8%
18.9%
Leg Strike %
10.3%
+4.0%
14.4%
Last 5 Win Rate
60.0%
EVEN
60.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
40.0%
EVEN
40.0%