Edmen Shahbazyan
"The Golden Boy"
16-5-0
VS
2026-09-19
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Middleweight
Brunno Ferreira
"The Hulk"
14-2-0
RECENCY-HEAVY · CATBOOST PREDICTION
Edmen Shahbazyan 'The Golden Boy'
64.7% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS CORRECT
Edmen Shahbazyan 'The Golden Boy' won
Decision · Round 3 · 5:00
How It Ends
35%
Decision
49%
KO / TKO
16%
Submission
Decision35.2%
KO / TKO49.3%
Submission15.5%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 151.6%
Round 235.5%
Round 3+12.9%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 65% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Edmen Shahbazyan
Brunno Ferreira
Net striking dominance
Matchup
18%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
16%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Edmen Shahbazyan
10%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
9%
Age
Brunno Ferreira
6%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
5%
Age
Edmen Shahbazyan
4%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Brunno Ferreira
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Edmen Shahbazyan
3%
Past prime
Brunno Ferreira
2%
Distance strike defense
Edmen Shahbazyan
2%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
2%
Avg takedowns attempted
Brunno Ferreira
2%
Distance strike defense
Brunno Ferreira
2%
← pushes toward Edmen Shahbazyan pushes toward Brunno Ferreira →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Edmen Shahbazyan

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
L DEC
W KO
W DEC
W KO
Height: 188 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Brunno Ferreira

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L DEC
L KO
W DEC
W SUB
Height: 178 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 183 cm
Stance: Orthodox