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Mario Pinto
11-0-0
VS
2026-09-05
UFC Fight Night: Page vs. Ruziboev
Heavyweight
Ryan Spann
"Superman"
23-11-0
CATBOOST PREDICTION
Mario Pinto
82.3% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
83.5% 16.5%
Mario Pinto
LightGBM
82.0% 18.0%
Mario Pinto
Logistic (Core)
72.1% 27.9%
Mario Pinto
CatBoost currently viewing
82.3% 17.7%
Mario Pinto
Ensemble
83.0% 17.0%
Mario Pinto
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
32%
Decision
51%
KO / TKO
17%
Submission
Decision32.3%
KO / TKO51.1%
Submission16.6%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 153.2%
Round 232.3%
Round 3+14.5%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 68% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Mario Pinto
Ryan Spann
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup -6.55
17%
Net striking dominance
Matchup +0.68
13%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Ryan Spann -1.73
10%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -23
8%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Mario Pinto -0.35
6%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.05
6%
Age
Ryan Spann 35.0 yrs
6%
Strikes absorbed/min
Mario Pinto 1.98
4%
Age
Mario Pinto 28.5 yrs
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Ryan Spann 1.51
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Mario Pinto 4.20
3%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup 29%
2%
Round 1 strike output
Ryan Spann 9.83
2%
Distance strike defense
Ryan Spann 51%
2%
← pushes toward Mario Pinto pushes toward Ryan Spann →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Mario Pinto

Win Streak
3
Finish Rate
67%
Avg Duration
9.9m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W KO
W KO
Height: 196 cm
Weight: 265 lbs
Reach: 201 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Ryan Spann

Win Streak
2
Finish Rate
60%
Avg Duration
5.9m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W SUB
L KO
W SUB
L KO
Height: 196 cm
Weight: 205 lbs
Reach: 201 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Mario Pinto
ADVANTAGE
Ryan Spann
Striking Accuracy
52.7%
+12.4%
40.4%
Strikes Landed/Min
2.47
+0.16
2.31
Strikes Absorbed/Min
1.98
+0.97
2.95
Striking Defense
56.7%
+9.9%
46.8%
Takedown Accuracy
30.6%
+5.6%
36.2%
Takedown Defense
66.5%
+0.5%
67.1%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.25
+0.04
0.29
Avg Control Time (sec)
98.01
+22.36
75.65
Strikes Per Round
13.17
+0.71
12.46
Head Strike %
67.8%
+2.3%
65.5%
Body Strike %
18.0%
+2.2%
20.2%
Leg Strike %
14.2%
+0.1%
14.3%
Last 5 Win Rate
100.0%
+40.0%
60.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
66.7%
+6.7%
60.0%