Mario Pinto
11-0-0
VS
Ryan Spann
"Superman"
23-11-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
83.5%
16.5%
Mario Pinto
LightGBM
82.0%
18.0%
Mario Pinto
Logistic (Core)
72.1%
27.9%
Mario Pinto
CatBoost
82.3%
17.7%
Mario Pinto
Ensemble
currently viewing
83.0%
17.0%
Mario Pinto
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
32%
Decision
51%
KO / TKO
17%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 68%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Mario Pinto
Ryan Spann
11%
10%
8%
8%
7%
6%
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
3%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Mario Pinto
pushes toward Ryan Spann →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Mario Pinto
Win Streak
3
Finish Rate
67%
Avg Duration
9.9m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
W
KO
W
KO
Height:
196 cm
Weight:
265 lbs
Reach:
201 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Ryan Spann
Win Streak
2
Finish Rate
60%
Avg Duration
5.9m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
KO
W
SUB
L
KO
W
SUB
L
KO
Height:
196 cm
Weight:
205 lbs
Reach:
201 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Mario Pinto
ADVANTAGE
Ryan Spann
Striking Accuracy
Strikes Landed/Min
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Striking Defense
Takedown Accuracy
Takedown Defense
Knockdowns/Fight
Avg Control Time (sec)
Strikes Per Round
Head Strike %
Body Strike %
Leg Strike %
Last 5 Win Rate
Last 5 Finish Rate