Mario Pinto
11-0-0
VS
Ryan Spann
"Superman"
23-11-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
82.7%
17.3%
Mario Pinto
LightGBM
currently viewing
82.4%
17.6%
Mario Pinto
Logistic (Core)
71.2%
28.8%
Mario Pinto
CatBoost
81.4%
18.6%
Mario Pinto
Ensemble
82.2%
17.8%
Mario Pinto
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
82.1%
17.9%
Mario Pinto
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
83.2%
16.8%
Mario Pinto
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
82.5%
17.5%
Mario Pinto
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
70.7%
29.3%
Mario Pinto
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
83.4%
16.6%
Mario Pinto
With Odds · CatBoost
80.0%
20.0%
Mario Pinto
With Odds · Ensemble
79.4%
20.6%
Mario Pinto
With Odds · LightGBM
77.6%
22.4%
Mario Pinto
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
71.2%
28.8%
Mario Pinto
With Odds · XGBoost
80.6%
19.4%
Mario Pinto
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
32%
Decision
51%
KO / TKO
16%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 68%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Mario Pinto
Ryan Spann
12%
12%
11%
9%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Mario Pinto
pushes toward Ryan Spann →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Mario Pinto
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
KO
W
DEC
W
KO
W
KO
Height:
196 cm
Weight:
265 lbs
Reach:
201 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Ryan Spann
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
KO
W
KO
W
SUB
L
KO
W
SUB
Height:
196 cm
Weight:
205 lbs
Reach:
201 cm
Stance:
Orthodox