Dan Hooker
"The Hangman"
24-13-0
VS
2026-09-05
UFC Fight Night: Page vs. Ruziboev
Lightweight
Salahdine Parnasse
23-2-0
Thin UFC data
XGBOOST PREDICTION
Salahdine Parnasse
60.9% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
49%
Decision
33%
KO / TKO
18%
Submission
Decision48.8%
KO / TKO33.2%
Submission18.0%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 156.7%
Round 226.7%
Round 3+16.6%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 51% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Dan Hooker
Salahdine Parnasse
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup +7.81
15%
Elo rating edge
Matchup 76
13%
Age
Dan Hooker 36.6 yrs
11%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +12
8%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Dan Hooker -0.72
7%
Age
Salahdine Parnasse 28.8 yrs
5%
Strikes absorbed/min
Dan Hooker 4.68
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Dan Hooker 1.92
4%
Elo rating
Salahdine Parnasse 1,500
3%
Years fighting
Salahdine Parnasse 0.0 yrs
2%
Sub attempts/fight
Dan Hooker 0.69
2%
Fights per year
Dan Hooker 2.07
2%
Striker anti-wrestling edge
Matchup -0.14
2%
Last 2 avg fight time
Salahdine Parnasse
2%
← pushes toward Dan Hooker pushes toward Salahdine Parnasse →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Dan Hooker

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
11.5m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
L SUB
W DEC
W DEC
W KO
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Switch

Salahdine Parnasse

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Height: N/A cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: N/A cm
Stance: N/A
Head-to-Head Stats
Dan Hooker
ADVANTAGE
Salahdine Parnasse
Striking Accuracy
49.2%
+49.2%
0.0%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.75
+3.75
0.00
Strikes Absorbed/Min
4.68
+4.68
0.00
Striking Defense
44.2%
+44.2%
0.0%
Takedown Accuracy
34.3%
+34.3%
0.0%
Takedown Defense
69.2%
+69.2%
0.0%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.23
+0.23
0.00
Avg Control Time (sec)
63.54
+63.54
0.00
Strikes Per Round
17.80
+17.80
0.00
Head Strike %
60.3%
+60.3%
0.0%
Body Strike %
23.2%
+23.2%
0.0%
Leg Strike %
16.5%
+16.5%
0.0%
Last 5 Win Rate
60.0%
+60.0%
0.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
20.0%
+20.0%
0.0%