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Joaquin Buckley
"New Mansa"
21-7-0
VS
2026-10-17
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
Welterweight
Mike Malott
"Proper"
13-2-1
CATBOOST PREDICTION
Mike Malott 'Proper'
55.3% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
45.1% 54.9%
Mike Malott
LightGBM
42.9% 57.1%
Mike Malott
Logistic (Core)
45.3% 54.7%
Mike Malott
CatBoost currently viewing
44.7% 55.3%
Mike Malott
Ensemble
44.2% 55.8%
Mike Malott
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
54%
Decision
35%
KO / TKO
10%
Submission
Decision54.0%
KO / TKO35.5%
Submission10.5%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 144.7%
Round 233.8%
Round 3+21.5%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 46% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Joaquin Buckley
Mike Malott
Net striking dominance
Matchup -0.59
15%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +12
13%
Elo rating edge
Matchup -27
10%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Joaquin Buckley -1.05
9%
Age
Mike Malott 34.9 yrs
8%
Avg takedowns attempted
Mike Malott 2.22
4%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup -14%
4%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Mike Malott +0.21
3%
Distance strike defense
Joaquin Buckley 64%
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Joaquin Buckley 2.41
3%
Striking defense
Joaquin Buckley 59%
2%
Fights per year
Mike Malott 1.99
2%
Common-opponent edge
Matchup -1
2%
Fights per year
Joaquin Buckley 2.96
2%
← pushes toward Joaquin Buckley pushes toward Mike Malott →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Joaquin Buckley

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
16.4m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L DEC
W KO
W KO
W DEC
Height: 178 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 193 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Mike Malott

Win Streak
4
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
12.5m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W DEC
W KO
W DEC
L KO
Height: 185 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 185 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Joaquin Buckley
ADVANTAGE
Mike Malott
Striking Accuracy
38.6%
+10.4%
49.0%
Strikes Landed/Min
2.96
+0.36
3.32
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.86
+0.23
2.63
Striking Defense
58.9%
+1.9%
57.0%
Takedown Accuracy
44.8%
+3.5%
41.3%
Takedown Defense
67.5%
+2.9%
70.4%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.34
+0.17
0.51
Avg Control Time (sec)
65.85
+6.65
72.50
Strikes Per Round
14.85
+1.32
16.17
Head Strike %
65.2%
+1.3%
63.9%
Body Strike %
23.3%
+4.2%
19.1%
Leg Strike %
11.5%
+5.5%
17.0%
Last 5 Win Rate
60.0%
+20.0%
80.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
20.0%
+20.0%
40.0%