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Joaquin Buckley
"New Mansa"
21-7-0
VS
2026-10-17
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
Welterweight
Mike Malott
"Proper"
13-2-1
WITH ODDS · LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Joaquin Buckley 'New Mansa'
51.1% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
41.0% 59.0%
Mike Malott
LightGBM
43.2% 56.8%
Mike Malott
Logistic (Core)
47.3% 52.7%
Mike Malott
CatBoost
44.9% 55.1%
Mike Malott
Ensemble
42.3% 57.7%
Mike Malott
No Age · CatBoost
38.8% 61.2%
Mike Malott
No Age · Ensemble
36.4% 63.6%
Mike Malott
No Age · LightGBM
38.3% 61.7%
Mike Malott
No Age · Logistic (Core)
38.2% 61.8%
Mike Malott
No Age · XGBoost
38.0% 62.0%
Mike Malott
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
42.1% 57.9%
Mike Malott
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
39.4% 60.6%
Mike Malott
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
40.8% 59.2%
Mike Malott
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
45.0% 55.0%
Mike Malott
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
40.5% 59.5%
Mike Malott
With Odds · CatBoost
50.0% 50.0%
Joaquin Buckley
With Odds · Ensemble
53.9% 46.1%
Joaquin Buckley
With Odds · LightGBM currently viewing
51.1% 48.9%
Joaquin Buckley
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
47.3% 52.7%
Mike Malott
With Odds · XGBoost
51.5% 48.5%
Joaquin Buckley
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
54%
Decision
35%
KO / TKO
11%
Submission
Decision53.6%
KO / TKO35.4%
Submission11.0%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 147.7%
Round 232.2%
Round 3+20.1%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 46% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Joaquin Buckley
Mike Malott
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +12
15%
Age
Mike Malott 34.9 yrs
13%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Joaquin Buckley -1.05
8%
Sub attempts/fight
Joaquin Buckley 0.19
7%
Net striking dominance
Matchup -0.59
7%
Avg takedowns attempted
Mike Malott 2.22
6%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Mike Malott 0.45
4%
Distance strike defense
Mike Malott 60%
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Joaquin Buckley 2.41
4%
Striking defense
Joaquin Buckley 59%
3%
Distance strike defense
Joaquin Buckley 64%
3%
Market latest prob diff
Matchup
2%
Fights per year
Joaquin Buckley 2.96
2%
Market line movement diff
Matchup
2%
← pushes toward Joaquin Buckley pushes toward Mike Malott →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Joaquin Buckley

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
16.4m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L DEC
W KO
W KO
W DEC
Height: 178 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 193 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Mike Malott

Win Streak
4
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
12.5m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W DEC
W KO
W DEC
L KO
Height: 185 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 185 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Joaquin Buckley
ADVANTAGE
Mike Malott
Striking Accuracy
38.6%
+10.4%
49.0%
Strikes Landed/Min
2.96
+0.36
3.32
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.86
+0.23
2.63
Striking Defense
58.9%
+1.9%
57.0%
Takedown Accuracy
44.8%
+3.5%
41.3%
Takedown Defense
67.5%
+2.9%
70.4%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.34
+0.17
0.51
Avg Control Time (sec)
65.85
+6.65
72.50
Strikes Per Round
14.85
+1.32
16.17
Head Strike %
65.2%
+1.3%
63.9%
Body Strike %
23.3%
+4.2%
19.1%
Leg Strike %
11.5%
+5.5%
17.0%
Last 5 Win Rate
60.0%
+20.0%
80.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
20.0%
+20.0%
40.0%