Michael Page
"Venom"
24-3-0
VS
2026-09-05
UFC Fight Night: Page vs. Ruziboev
Middleweight
Nursulton Ruziboev
"Black"
36-9-2
RECENCY-HEAVY · CATBOOST PREDICTION
Michael Page 'Venom'
67.5% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS CORRECT
Michael Page 'Venom' won
Decision · Round 3 · 5:00
How It Ends
44%
Decision
40%
KO / TKO
15%
Submission
Decision44.3%
KO / TKO40.3%
Submission15.4%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 148.2%
Round 235.8%
Round 3+15.9%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 56% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Michael Page
Nursulton Ruziboev
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
14%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
13%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
11%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Nursulton Ruziboev
9%
Age
Michael Page
8%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Michael Page
5%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
5%
Strikes absorbed/min
Michael Page
5%
Distance strike defense
Michael Page
4%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Nursulton Ruziboev
3%
Head absorption rate
Michael Page
2%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup
2%
Avg takedowns attempted
Michael Page
2%
← pushes toward Michael Page pushes toward Nursulton Ruziboev →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Michael Page

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W DEC
W DEC
W DEC
L DEC
Height: 190 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 201 cm
Stance: Switch

Nursulton Ruziboev

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
W SUB
W DEC
W KO
L DEC
Height: 196 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 193 cm
Stance: Orthodox