Michael Page
"Venom"
24-3-0
VS
Nursulton Ruziboev
"Black"
36-9-2
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
71.7%
28.3%
Michael Page
LightGBM
68.5%
31.5%
Michael Page
Logistic (Core)
54.4%
45.6%
Michael Page
CatBoost
65.9%
34.1%
Michael Page
Ensemble
65.7%
34.3%
Michael Page
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
67.5%
32.5%
Michael Page
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
69.1%
30.9%
Michael Page
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
73.3%
26.7%
Michael Page
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
52.8%
47.2%
Michael Page
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
69.3%
30.7%
Michael Page
With Odds · CatBoost
69.1%
30.9%
Michael Page
With Odds · Ensemble
72.5%
27.5%
Michael Page
With Odds · LightGBM
currently viewing
70.5%
29.5%
Michael Page
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
54.4%
45.6%
Michael Page
With Odds · XGBoost
72.4%
27.6%
Michael Page
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
44%
Decision
40%
KO / TKO
15%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 56%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Michael Page
Nursulton Ruziboev
12%
11%
8%
8%
6%
5%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Michael Page
pushes toward Nursulton Ruziboev →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Michael Page
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
W
DEC
W
DEC
W
DEC
L
DEC
Height:
190 cm
Weight:
185 lbs
Reach:
201 cm
Stance:
Switch
Nursulton Ruziboev
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
DEC
W
SUB
W
DEC
W
KO
L
DEC
Height:
196 cm
Weight:
185 lbs
Reach:
193 cm
Stance:
Orthodox