Michael Page
"Venom"
24-3-0
VS
2026-09-05
UFC Fight Night: Page vs. Ruziboev
Middleweight
Nursulton Ruziboev
"Black"
36-9-2
XGBOOST PREDICTION
Michael Page 'Venom'
71.4% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
43%
Decision
41%
KO / TKO
15%
Submission
Decision43.3%
KO / TKO41.4%
Submission15.3%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 148.3%
Round 235.6%
Round 3+16.1%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 57% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Michael Page
Nursulton Ruziboev
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup +6.62
12%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Nursulton Ruziboev -0.96
9%
Age
Michael Page 39.4 yrs
8%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Michael Page -0.35
8%
Strikes absorbed/min
Michael Page 1.84
6%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -20
6%
Avg takedowns attempted
Nursulton Ruziboev 1.82
5%
Net striking dominance
Matchup +0.51
5%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.09
5%
Head absorption rate
Michael Page 55%
4%
Round 1 strike output
Nursulton Ruziboev 10.23
3%
Finishing threat edge
Matchup -0.35
3%
Sub attempts/fight
Michael Page 0.18
2%
Striker anti-wrestling edge
Matchup -0.09
2%
← pushes toward Michael Page pushes toward Nursulton Ruziboev →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Michael Page

Win Streak
3
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
15.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W DEC
W DEC
L DEC
W DEC
Height: 190 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 201 cm
Stance: Switch

Nursulton Ruziboev

Win Streak
3
Finish Rate
60%
Avg Duration
8.6m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
W DEC
W KO
L DEC
W KO
Height: 196 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 193 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Michael Page
ADVANTAGE
Nursulton Ruziboev
Striking Accuracy
50.4%
+4.7%
45.7%
Strikes Landed/Min
2.31
+0.12
2.19
Strikes Absorbed/Min
1.84
+0.39
2.23
Striking Defense
60.3%
+7.5%
52.7%
Takedown Accuracy
31.0%
+16.5%
47.4%
Takedown Defense
66.7%
+11.2%
55.4%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.12
+0.25
0.36
Avg Control Time (sec)
62.22
+8.90
71.12
Strikes Per Round
12.43
+0.20
12.23
Head Strike %
63.0%
+1.4%
64.4%
Body Strike %
21.1%
+1.1%
22.2%
Leg Strike %
16.0%
+2.5%
13.5%
Last 5 Win Rate
80.0%
EVEN
80.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
0.0%
+60.0%
60.0%