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Michael Aswell Jr.
"The Texas Kid"
11-3-0
VS
2026-09-19
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Featherweight
JooSang Yoo
"Zombie Jr."
9-1-0
NO AGE · ENSEMBLE PREDICTION
JooSang Yoo 'Zombie Jr.'
50.5% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS WRONG
Michael Aswell Jr. 'The Texas Kid' won
Decision · Round 3 · 5:00
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
60.2% 39.8%
Michael Aswell Jr.
LightGBM
49.9% 50.1%
JooSang Yoo
Logistic (Core)
57.5% 42.5%
Michael Aswell Jr.
CatBoost
55.8% 44.2%
Michael Aswell Jr.
Ensemble
54.5% 45.5%
Michael Aswell Jr.
market-margin__xgb-full
29.4% 70.6%
JooSang Yoo
No Age · CatBoost
45.8% 54.2%
JooSang Yoo
No Age · Ensemble currently viewing
49.5% 50.5%
JooSang Yoo
No Age · LightGBM
47.0% 53.0%
JooSang Yoo
No Age · Logistic (Core)
46.7% 53.3%
JooSang Yoo
No Age · XGBoost
49.9% 50.1%
JooSang Yoo
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
56.3% 43.7%
Michael Aswell Jr.
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
58.0% 42.0%
Michael Aswell Jr.
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
55.1% 44.9%
Michael Aswell Jr.
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
57.3% 42.7%
Michael Aswell Jr.
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
55.3% 44.7%
Michael Aswell Jr.
With Odds · CatBoost
30.1% 69.9%
JooSang Yoo
With Odds · Ensemble
32.5% 67.5%
JooSang Yoo
With Odds · LightGBM
33.2% 66.8%
JooSang Yoo
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
57.5% 42.5%
Michael Aswell Jr.
With Odds · XGBoost
32.8% 67.2%
JooSang Yoo
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
53%
Decision
35%
KO / TKO
12%
Submission
Decision53.2%
KO / TKO34.9%
Submission11.9%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 154.1%
Round 228.7%
Round 3+17.2%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 47% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Michael Aswell Jr.
JooSang Yoo
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
14%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
7%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
7%
Last 2 avg fight time
JooSang Yoo
6%
Avg takedowns attempted
Michael Aswell Jr.
5%
Total control time conceded
Michael Aswell Jr.
5%
Age
Michael Aswell Jr.
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
JooSang Yoo
4%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
4%
Head absorption rate
Michael Aswell Jr.
4%
Age
JooSang Yoo
4%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Michael Aswell Jr.
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Michael Aswell Jr.
3%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup
3%
← pushes toward Michael Aswell Jr. pushes toward JooSang Yoo →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Michael Aswell Jr.

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
L DEC
L DEC
W KO
L DEC
Height: 173 cm
Weight: 145 lbs
Reach: 175 cm
Stance: Orthodox

JooSang Yoo

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L KO
W KO
Height: 170 cm
Weight: 145 lbs
Reach: 180 cm
Stance: Orthodox