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Neil Magny
"The Haitian Sensation"
31-14-0
VS
2026-08-15
UFC 330
Welterweight
Ramiz Brahimaj
13-5-0
CATBOOST PREDICTION
Neil Magny 'The Haitian Sensation'
54.3% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
46.7% 53.3%
Ramiz Brahimaj
LightGBM
46.2% 53.8%
Ramiz Brahimaj
Logistic (Core)
54.3% 45.7%
Neil Magny
CatBoost currently viewing
54.3% 45.7%
Neil Magny
Ensemble
52.5% 47.5%
Neil Magny
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
37%
Decision
23%
KO / TKO
40%
Submission
Decision37.5%
KO / TKO23.0%
Submission39.5%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 149.5%
Round 236.0%
Round 3+14.5%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 63% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Neil Magny
Ramiz Brahimaj
Elo rating edge
Matchup 59
14%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup +5.29
14%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +27
10%
Net striking dominance
Matchup +0.29
10%
Age
Neil Magny 39.0 yrs
7%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Neil Magny -1.41
6%
Reach edge
Matchup +20.3 cm
5%
Age
Ramiz Brahimaj 33.7 yrs
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Ramiz Brahimaj 3.66
3%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Ramiz Brahimaj +0.21
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Neil Magny 3.36
2%
Distance strike defense
Ramiz Brahimaj 59%
2%
Fights per year
Ramiz Brahimaj 1.70
2%
Fights per year
Neil Magny 2.89
1%
← pushes toward Neil Magny pushes toward Ramiz Brahimaj →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Neil Magny

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
7.1m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L SUB
W SUB
W KO
L KO
L KO
Height: 190 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 203 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Ramiz Brahimaj

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
60%
Avg Duration
8.7m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
W SUB
W SUB
W KO
L DEC
Height: 178 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 183 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Neil Magny
ADVANTAGE
Ramiz Brahimaj
Striking Accuracy
47.7%
+1.8%
49.5%
Strikes Landed/Min
2.73
+0.46
2.26
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.71
+0.17
2.54
Striking Defense
48.4%
+2.6%
51.0%
Takedown Accuracy
35.0%
+1.8%
33.2%
Takedown Defense
56.6%
+5.7%
50.9%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.08
+0.10
0.18
Avg Control Time (sec)
75.31
+1.36
73.95
Strikes Per Round
13.95
+1.47
12.48
Head Strike %
69.3%
+5.7%
63.6%
Body Strike %
18.7%
+4.8%
23.5%
Leg Strike %
12.0%
+0.9%
12.9%
Last 5 Win Rate
40.0%
+20.0%
60.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
40.0%
+20.0%
60.0%