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Rei Tsuruya
10-1-0
VS
2026-08-29
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Flyweight
Kevin Borjas
"El Gallo Negro"
10-4-0
LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Rei Tsuruya
72.1% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
70.7% 29.3%
Rei Tsuruya
LightGBM currently viewing
72.1% 27.9%
Rei Tsuruya
Logistic (Core)
75.4% 24.6%
Rei Tsuruya
CatBoost
74.5% 25.5%
Rei Tsuruya
Ensemble
73.9% 26.1%
Rei Tsuruya
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
55%
Decision
26%
KO / TKO
19%
Submission
Decision54.7%
KO / TKO26.3%
Submission19.0%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 145.7%
Round 235.4%
Round 3+18.8%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 45% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Rei Tsuruya
Kevin Borjas
Elo rating edge
Matchup 56
12%
Net striking dominance
Matchup +0.80
12%
Avg takedowns attempted
Rei Tsuruya 5.88
10%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Kevin Borjas -1.05
9%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup -0.06
8%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Rei Tsuruya -0.48
6%
Age
Rei Tsuruya 24.2 yrs
5%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup -4.54
4%
Head absorption rate
Kevin Borjas 57%
3%
Age
Kevin Borjas 28.7 yrs
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Kevin Borjas 2.42
3%
Distance strike defense
Rei Tsuruya 56%
3%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup 8%
2%
Fights per year
Rei Tsuruya 1.57
2%
← pushes toward Rei Tsuruya pushes toward Kevin Borjas →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Rei Tsuruya

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
33%
Avg Duration
11.1m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
L DEC
W DEC
Height: 168 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 173 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Kevin Borjas

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
12.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
L KO
L DEC
W DEC
L KO
Height: 165 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 173 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Rei Tsuruya
ADVANTAGE
Kevin Borjas
Striking Accuracy
45.8%
+2.7%
43.1%
Strikes Landed/Min
2.52
+0.63
3.14
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.55
+1.96
4.51
Striking Defense
50.7%
+0.5%
51.1%
Takedown Accuracy
29.7%
+5.3%
24.3%
Takedown Defense
61.6%
+12.0%
73.6%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.13
+0.29
0.43
Avg Control Time (sec)
88.84
+28.95
59.90
Strikes Per Round
13.85
+1.85
15.70
Head Strike %
69.5%
+1.6%
67.8%
Body Strike %
17.2%
+2.3%
19.5%
Leg Strike %
13.3%
+0.7%
12.6%
Last 5 Win Rate
66.7%
+26.7%
40.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
33.3%
+33.3%
0.0%