Rei Tsuruya vs Kevin Borjas

Rei Tsuruya

10-1-0

VS

2026-08-29

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Flyweight

Kevin Borjas

"El Gallo Negro"

10-4-0

What Every Model Says

Logistic (Core)

Recency-Heavy · CatBoost

Recency-Heavy · Ensemble

Recency-Heavy · LightGBM currently viewing

Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)

Recency-Heavy · XGBoost

Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.

How It Ends

55%

Decision

26%

KO / TKO

19%

Submission

Decision55.2%

KO / TKO25.8%

Submission18.9%

If it's a finish, which round

Round 146.4%

Round 235.5%

Round 3+18.1%

A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 45% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.

Why LightGBM leans this way

Rei Tsuruya

Kevin Borjas

Elo rating edge

Matchup

14%

Net striking dominance

Matchup

12%

Strike rate delta r1 to r3

Kevin Borjas

9%

Defensive skill edge

Matchup

6%

Strike rate delta r1 to r3

Rei Tsuruya

6%

Avg takedowns attempted

Rei Tsuruya

5%

Head absorption rate

Kevin Borjas

5%

Age

Rei Tsuruya

5%

Age edge (significant gap)

Matchup

4%

Age

Kevin Borjas

4%

Distance strike defense

Rei Tsuruya

3%

Avg takedowns attempted

Kevin Borjas

3%

Fights per year

Rei Tsuruya

2%

Head-strike accuracy edge

Matchup

2%

← pushes toward Rei Tsuruya pushes toward Kevin Borjas →

Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.