Back
Tim Elliott
22-13-1
VS
2026-09-12
UFC Fight Night: Elliott vs. Chairez
Flyweight
Edgar Chairez
"Puro Chicali"
12-6-0
CATBOOST PREDICTION
Edgar Chairez 'Puro Chicali'
67.9% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
31.8% 68.2%
Edgar Chairez
LightGBM
32.0% 68.0%
Edgar Chairez
Logistic (Core)
25.1% 74.9%
Edgar Chairez
CatBoost currently viewing
32.1% 67.9%
Edgar Chairez
Ensemble
31.5% 68.5%
Edgar Chairez
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
55%
Decision
18%
KO / TKO
27%
Submission
Decision54.7%
KO / TKO18.1%
Submission27.2%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 144.7%
Round 237.8%
Round 3+17.5%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 45% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Tim Elliott
Edgar Chairez
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup +9.09
20%
Elo rating edge
Matchup -55
13%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Edgar Chairez -1.04
10%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +18
9%
Net striking dominance
Matchup -0.21
7%
Age
Tim Elliott 39.7 yrs
7%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.02
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Edgar Chairez 1.62
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Tim Elliott 5.22
3%
Age
Edgar Chairez 30.6 yrs
3%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Tim Elliott -0.06
2%
Significant reach edge
Matchup -1.0 cm
2%
Sub attempts/fight
Tim Elliott 0.60
1%
Distance strike defense
Tim Elliott 56%
1%
← pushes toward Tim Elliott pushes toward Edgar Chairez →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Tim Elliott

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
11.3m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
W SUB
W SUB
L SUB
W DEC
Height: 170 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 168 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Edgar Chairez

Win Streak
3
Finish Rate
60%
Avg Duration
7.8m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
W DEC
W SUB
L DEC
W SUB
Height: 170 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 180 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Tim Elliott
ADVANTAGE
Edgar Chairez
Striking Accuracy
40.5%
+6.0%
46.5%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.57
+0.02
3.59
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.95
+0.18
3.76
Striking Defense
53.2%
+2.6%
50.6%
Takedown Accuracy
36.1%
+1.5%
34.6%
Takedown Defense
62.3%
+2.0%
60.4%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.13
+0.28
0.40
Avg Control Time (sec)
83.33
+20.40
62.93
Strikes Per Round
17.22
+0.03
17.20
Head Strike %
57.5%
+5.5%
62.9%
Body Strike %
18.0%
+1.8%
19.8%
Leg Strike %
24.5%
+7.3%
17.2%
Last 5 Win Rate
60.0%
+20.0%
80.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
40.0%
+20.0%
60.0%