Tim Elliott
22-13-1
VS
Edgar Chairez
"Puro Chicali"
12-6-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
currently viewing
31.8%
68.2%
Edgar Chairez
LightGBM
32.0%
68.0%
Edgar Chairez
Logistic (Core)
25.1%
74.9%
Edgar Chairez
CatBoost
32.1%
67.9%
Edgar Chairez
Ensemble
31.5%
68.5%
Edgar Chairez
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
55%
Decision
18%
KO / TKO
27%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 45%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Tim Elliott
Edgar Chairez
17%
10%
7%
7%
7%
6%
5%
4%
4%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Tim Elliott
pushes toward Edgar Chairez →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Tim Elliott
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
11.3m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
DEC
W
SUB
W
SUB
L
SUB
W
DEC
Height:
170 cm
Weight:
125 lbs
Reach:
168 cm
Stance:
Southpaw
Edgar Chairez
Win Streak
3
Finish Rate
60%
Avg Duration
7.8m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
SUB
W
DEC
W
SUB
L
DEC
W
SUB
Height:
170 cm
Weight:
125 lbs
Reach:
180 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Tim Elliott
ADVANTAGE
Edgar Chairez
Striking Accuracy
Strikes Landed/Min
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Striking Defense
Takedown Accuracy
Takedown Defense
Knockdowns/Fight
Avg Control Time (sec)
Strikes Per Round
Head Strike %
Body Strike %
Leg Strike %
Last 5 Win Rate
Last 5 Finish Rate