Tim Elliott
22-13-1
VS
Edgar Chairez
"Puro Chicali"
12-6-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
32.4%
67.6%
Edgar Chairez
LightGBM
32.7%
67.3%
Edgar Chairez
Logistic (Core)
currently viewing
25.6%
74.4%
Edgar Chairez
CatBoost
33.0%
67.0%
Edgar Chairez
Ensemble
31.5%
68.5%
Edgar Chairez
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
28.1%
71.9%
Edgar Chairez
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
27.3%
72.7%
Edgar Chairez
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
29.1%
70.9%
Edgar Chairez
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
22.2%
77.8%
Edgar Chairez
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
30.2%
69.8%
Edgar Chairez
With Odds · CatBoost
30.3%
69.7%
Edgar Chairez
With Odds · Ensemble
31.0%
69.0%
Edgar Chairez
With Odds · LightGBM
29.2%
70.8%
Edgar Chairez
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
25.5%
74.5%
Edgar Chairez
With Odds · XGBoost
28.8%
71.2%
Edgar Chairez
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
56%
Decision
20%
KO / TKO
24%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 44%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Tim Elliott
Edgar Chairez
16%
11%
9%
9%
8%
8%
5%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Tim Elliott
pushes toward Edgar Chairez →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Tim Elliott
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
L
DEC
W
SUB
W
SUB
L
SUB
Height:
170 cm
Weight:
125 lbs
Reach:
168 cm
Stance:
Southpaw
Edgar Chairez
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
DEC
W
SUB
W
DEC
W
SUB
L
DEC
Height:
170 cm
Weight:
125 lbs
Reach:
180 cm
Stance:
Orthodox