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Bia Mesquita
6-0-0
VS
2026-11-14
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
Women's Bantamweight
Macy Chiasson
11-5-0
CATBOOST PREDICTION
Bia Mesquita
69.8% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
67.0% 33.0%
Bia Mesquita
LightGBM
67.7% 32.3%
Bia Mesquita
Logistic (Core)
68.8% 31.2%
Bia Mesquita
CatBoost currently viewing
69.8% 30.2%
Bia Mesquita
Ensemble
64.3% 35.7%
Bia Mesquita
No Age · CatBoost
70.3% 29.7%
Bia Mesquita
No Age · Ensemble
66.0% 34.0%
Bia Mesquita
No Age · LightGBM
71.2% 28.8%
Bia Mesquita
No Age · Logistic (Core)
72.0% 28.0%
Bia Mesquita
No Age · XGBoost
70.6% 29.4%
Bia Mesquita
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
68.5% 31.5%
Bia Mesquita
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
63.7% 36.3%
Bia Mesquita
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
69.0% 31.0%
Bia Mesquita
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
68.6% 31.4%
Bia Mesquita
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
70.6% 29.4%
Bia Mesquita
With Odds · CatBoost
54.9% 45.1%
Bia Mesquita
With Odds · Ensemble
48.8% 51.2%
Macy Chiasson
With Odds · LightGBM
56.4% 43.6%
Bia Mesquita
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
68.8% 31.2%
Bia Mesquita
With Odds · XGBoost
56.7% 43.3%
Bia Mesquita
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
52%
Decision
17%
KO / TKO
31%
Submission
Decision52.4%
KO / TKO17.1%
Submission30.6%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 143.6%
Round 242.2%
Round 3+14.1%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 48% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Bia Mesquita
Macy Chiasson
Net striking dominance
Matchup +0.72
14%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -10
10%
Age
Macy Chiasson 35.3 yrs
8%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Macy Chiasson +1.47
8%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.05
7%
Age
Bia Mesquita 35.6 yrs
7%
Elo rating edge
Matchup 26
6%
Strikes absorbed/min
Bia Mesquita 2.07
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Bia Mesquita 2.06
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Macy Chiasson 3.09
3%
Distance strike defense
Macy Chiasson 58%
3%
Distance strike defense
Bia Mesquita 63%
3%
Finishing threat edge
Matchup 0.38
2%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup 22%
2%
← pushes toward Bia Mesquita pushes toward Macy Chiasson →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Bia Mesquita

Win Streak
3
Finish Rate
100%
Avg Duration
4.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
W SUB
W SUB
Height: 163 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 170 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Macy Chiasson

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
11.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L DEC
L DEC
W KO
W SUB
Height: 180 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 183 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Bia Mesquita
ADVANTAGE
Macy Chiasson
Striking Accuracy
48.7%
+3.4%
45.3%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.02
+0.44
2.58
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.07
+0.75
2.83
Striking Defense
58.7%
+10.5%
48.2%
Takedown Accuracy
44.9%
+7.2%
37.7%
Takedown Defense
58.3%
+1.3%
59.5%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.09
+0.00
0.08
Avg Control Time (sec)
84.40
+5.69
78.71
Strikes Per Round
15.78
+1.87
13.91
Head Strike %
69.4%
+11.8%
57.6%
Body Strike %
17.1%
+10.3%
27.4%
Leg Strike %
13.5%
+1.5%
15.0%
Last 5 Win Rate
100.0%
+60.0%
40.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
100.0%
+80.0%
20.0%